UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Saturday, April 17, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 5/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Whittaker 75%25% Gastelum
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+4.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +397(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Gastelum)
HeavyweightMISS
Andrei Arlovski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arlovski 42%58% Sherman
LEANMarket: 54% (-12.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sherman)
MiddleweightMISS
Jacob Malkoun won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Malkoun 42%58% Alhassan
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -213(favors Alhassan)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Alhassan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Alhassan)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Tracy Cortez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cortez 79%21% Kish
STRONGMarket: 71% (+8.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +205(favors Cortez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Kish)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Cortez)
LightweightHIT
Luis Pena won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pena 73%27% Munoz
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +169(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Pena)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexandr Romanov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Romanov 57%43% Espino
LEAN
→Elo gap: +72(favors Romanov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Espino)
→Takedown rate advantage: -7.8(favors Espino)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Jessica Penne won by Decision - Split (R3)
Penne 46%54% Godinez
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -186(favors Godinez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Penne)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R1)
Meerschaert 46%54% Fabinski
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+0.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Meerschaert)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Fabinski)
LightweightMISS
Austin Hubbard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hubbard 44%56% Bush
LEANMarket: 62% (-18.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -2(favors Bush)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Hubbard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Hubbard)
BantamweightHIT
Tony Gravely won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gravely 80%20% Birchak
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +118(favors Gravely)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.9(favors Gravely)