UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Kelvin Gastelum (13-10). Whittaker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Whittaker is rated at 1528 — 189 points above Gastelum's 1340. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Gastelum's all-rounder approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Gastelum is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gastelum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Kelvin Gastelum. We're leaning Whittaker here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 70% implied while our model sees 75% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Arlovski carries a modest Elo edge (858 to 822), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Sherman's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sherman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Sherman over Andrei Arlovski. The model gives Sherman a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Arlovski, but our model sees only 42%. That 12-point gap favoring Sherman is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (4-3) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6).

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 348 points above Alhassan's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Alhassan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Jacob Malkoun. The model gives Alhassan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Tracy Cortez (6-1) taking on Justine Kish (3-3).

Cortez is rated at 1318 — 418 points above Kish's 900. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kish throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Cortez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tracy Cortez over Justine Kish. The model is firm on this one: Cortez at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Cortez at 71% implied while our model sees 79% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Luis Pena (4-3) taking on Alexander Munoz (0-2). Pena is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pena at 1146 versus Munoz at 1001. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Pena over Alexander Munoz. We're leaning Pena here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexandr Romanov (6-3) taking on Juan Espino (2-0). Espino will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Romanov is rated at 1307 — 210 points above Espino's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Espino throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Espino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.8 more per 15 minutes. Romanov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandr Romanov over Juan Espino. The model gives Romanov a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Penne (3-5) taking on Loopy Godinez (8-5). Penne is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Godinez is rated at 1260 — 458 points above Penne's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Penne is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Godinez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Godinez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Penne throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Penne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Jessica Penne. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godinez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Bartosz Fabinski (3-2).

Fabinski carries a modest Elo edge (909 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Meerschaert's wrestler game against Fabinski's striker approach. Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fabinski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meerschaert throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fabinski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bartosz Fabinski over Gerald Meerschaert. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fabinski at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Austin Hubbard (4-7) taking on Dakota Bush (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hubbard at 817, Bush at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hubbard throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Bush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dakota Bush over Austin Hubbard. The model gives Bush a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 62% for Hubbard, but our model sees only 44%. That 18-point gap favoring Bush is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Tony Gravely (4-3) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Birchak.

Gravely is rated at 1012 — 204 points above Birchak's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gravely is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Gravely over Anthony Birchak. The model is firm on this one: Gravely at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Gravely at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.