UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-3) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-5).

Hernandez is rated at 1730 — 175 points above Dolidze's 1555. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's wrestler game against Dolidze's striker approach. Hernandez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dolidze brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.4 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Roman Dolidze. We're leaning Hernandez here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Steve Erceg (4-3) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-8). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Erceg is rated at 1247 — 339 points above Osbourne's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Erceg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Erceg over Ode Osbourne. The model is firm on this one: Erceg at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Iasmin Lucindo (5-2) taking on Angela Hill (13-16).

Lucindo is rated at 1369 — 222 points above Hill's 1147. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucindo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Lucindo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iasmin Lucindo over Angela Hill. We're leaning Lucindo here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lucindo at 62% implied while our model sees 74% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Christian Rodriguez (5-4). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Fili carries a modest Elo edge (1176 to 1134), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Rodriguez's wrestler approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Rodriguez over Andre Fili. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 32% for Fili, but our model sees only 27%. That 4-point gap favoring Rodriguez is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jean Matsumoto (3-2) taking on Miles Johns (6-5).

Matsumoto is rated at 1306 — 185 points above Johns's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matsumoto throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matsumoto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jean Matsumoto over Miles Johns. We're leaning Matsumoto here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (7-2) taking on Eryk Anders (10-9). Duncan will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duncan is rated at 1617 — 384 points above Anders's 1233. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Eryk Anders. The model is firm on this one: Duncan at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Duncan at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Julius Walker (1-2) taking on Rafael Cerqueira (0-4).

Walker is rated at 988 — 333 points above Cerqueira's 654. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walker throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cerqueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julius Walker over Rafael Cerqueira. The model is firm on this one: Walker at 77%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Elijah Smith (3-0) taking on Toshiomi Kazama (1-3). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Smith is rated at 1409 — 598 points above Kazama's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elijah Smith over Toshiomi Kazama. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 86%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Joselyne Edwards (8-4) taking on Priscila Cachoeira (5-8). Edwards will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Edwards is rated at 1320 — 348 points above Cachoeira's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Edwards rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Edwards's wrestler game against Cachoeira's striker approach. Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cachoeira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cachoeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joselyne Edwards over Priscila Cachoeira. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 77% implied while our model sees 90% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (7-3) taking on Gilbert Urbina (1-3). Urbina is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Medic is rated at 1584 — 779 points above Urbina's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Gilbert Urbina. We're leaning Medic here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Gabriella Fernandes (3-3) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-7).

Fernandes is rated at 1081 — 230 points above Stoliarenko's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Fernandes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Fernandes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Stoliarenko is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 55% win rate against all-rounders, giving Stoliarenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fernandes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoliarenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Fernandes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriella Fernandes over Julija Stoliarenko. The model is firm on this one: Fernandes at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Fernandes at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Eric McConico (1-2) taking on Cody Brundage (5-8). McConico will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

McConico carries a modest Elo edge (927 to 875), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brundage throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brundage is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. McConico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Brundage over Eric McConico. We're leaning Brundage here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.