UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov
Saturday, February 6, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Alexander Volkov won by KO/TKO (R2)
Volkov 64%36% Overeem
LEANMarket: 63% (+1.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Overeem)
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sandhagen 88%12% Edgar
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Sandhagen)
LightweightMISS
Clay Guida won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Guida 29%71% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +84(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Guida)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pantoja 52%48% Kape
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +252(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Pantoja)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dariush 58%42% Ferreira
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.9(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Dariush)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Danilo Marques won by Submission (R2)
Marques 46%54% Rodriguez
TOSS-UPMarket: 32% (+14.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +84(favors Marques)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Marques)
Catch WeightHIT
Devonte Smith won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smith 76%24% Jaynes
STRONGMarket: 75% (+1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +134(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jaynes)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Karol Rosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosa 61%39% Edwards
LEANMarket: 68% (-7.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +25(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Rosa)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Lara Procopio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Procopio 53%47% McCann
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -84(favors McCann)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Procopio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors McCann)
FeatherweightMISS
SeungWoo Choi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Choi 27%73% Zalal
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -159(favors Zalal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Choi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Zalal)
FeatherweightHIT
Timur Valiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Valiev 68%32% Day
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +282(favors Valiev)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Valiev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Day)
FeatherweightHIT
Ode Osbourne won by KO/TKO (R1)
Osbourne 57%43% Rivera
LEANMarket: 66% (-9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Osbourne)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rivera)