UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Alistair Overeem (12-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Volkov.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 342 points above Overeem's 1412. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Overeem throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Overeem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Alistair Overeem. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cory Sandhagen (11-4) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Sandhagen is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sandhagen is rated at 1707 — 522 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sandhagen throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sandhagen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Sandhagen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cory Sandhagen over Frankie Edgar. The model is firm on this one: Sandhagen at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Sandhagen at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 319 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guida's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Clay Guida. We're leaning Johnson here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Guida, but our model sees only 29%. That 6-point gap favoring Johnson is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Manel Kape (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kape at 1586 versus Pantoja at 1497. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Manel Kape. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pantoja at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 224 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dariush is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dariush the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Dariush a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Danilo Marques (2-1) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-4). Rodriguez will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Marques carries a modest Elo edge (866 to 810), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Marques is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Marques has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Danilo Marques. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Marques at 32% implied while our model sees 46% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Devonte Smith (3-2) taking on Justin Jaynes (1-3). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Smith at 869 versus Jaynes at 768. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jaynes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devonte Smith over Justin Jaynes. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Joselyne Edwards (7-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Edwards at 1320 versus Rosa at 1201. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Edwards has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Rosa's striker game against Edwards's wrestler approach. Rosa brings a versatile approach, while Edwards looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karol Rosa over Joselyne Edwards. The model gives Rosa a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Rosa, but our model sees only 61%. That 7-point gap favoring Edwards is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lara Procopio (1-1) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Procopio will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Procopio at 951 versus McCann at 834. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Procopio throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lara Procopio over Molly McCann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Procopio at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features SeungWoo Choi (4-6) taking on Youssef Zalal (7-3-1). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 712 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Choi's striker game against Zalal's wrestler approach. Choi brings a versatile approach, while Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Youssef Zalal over SeungWoo Choi. We're leaning Zalal here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Timur Valiev (2-0) taking on Martin Day (0-3). Day is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Valiev is rated at 1105 — 416 points above Day's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Valiev throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Day is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Day has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timur Valiev over Martin Day. We're leaning Valiev here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 75% for Valiev, but our model sees only 68%. That 7-point gap favoring Day is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Ode Osbourne (5-7) taking on Jerome Rivera (0-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rivera.

Osbourne is rated at 846 — 181 points above Rivera's 665. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rivera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ode Osbourne over Jerome Rivera. The model gives Osbourne a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Osbourne, but our model sees only 57%. That 10-point gap favoring Rivera is worth watching.