UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 220 points above Magny's 1270. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Chiesa looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Magny is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chiesa the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Neil Magny. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chiesa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Chiesa at 43% implied while our model sees 51% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Mounir Lazzez (2-1). Lazzez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lazzez carries a modest Elo edge (972 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lazzez throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lazzez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mounir Lazzez over Warlley Alves. The model gives Lazzez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 32% implied while our model sees 40% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ike Villanueva (1-4) taking on Vinicius Moreira (0-3). Moreira is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Villanueva carries a modest Elo edge (653 to 602), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villanueva throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vinicius Moreira over Ike Villanueva. The model gives Moreira a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Villanueva, but our model sees only 45%. That 11-point gap favoring Moreira is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Roxanne Modafferi (4-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Modafferi.

Araujo is rated at 1207 — 229 points above Modafferi's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Araujo's all-rounder game against Modafferi's striker approach. Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Modafferi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Araujo throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Modafferi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Araujo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viviane Araujo over Roxanne Modafferi. The model is firm on this one: Araujo at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Araujo at 73% implied while our model sees 77% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Tyson Nam (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nam at 988 versus Schnell at 899. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Schnell's wrestler game against Nam's striker approach. Schnell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nam brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Schnell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Schnell over Tyson Nam. The model gives Schnell a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Schnell at 45% implied while our model sees 56% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5). Murphy is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 509 points above Andrade's 1146. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Murphy's all-rounder game against Andrade's striker approach. Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Andrade brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lerone Murphy over Douglas Silva de Andrade. The model is firm on this one: Murphy at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Tom Breese (5-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Breese.

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 162 points above Breese's 1141. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Akhmedov's striker game against Breese's all-rounder approach. Akhmedov brings a versatile approach, while Breese is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breese throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Breese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Tom Breese. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Akhmedov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Akhmedov at 42% implied while our model sees 54% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ricky Simon (10-5) taking on Gaetano Pirrello (0-1). Simon will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Simon is rated at 1223 — 370 points above Pirrello's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simon throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Pirrello has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Gaetano Pirrello. The model is firm on this one: Simon at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Simon at 81% implied while our model sees 91% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (4-4) taking on Zarrukh Adashev (1-2). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 246 points above Adashev's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sumudaerji is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Zarrukh Adashev. We're leaning Sumudaerji here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Dalcha Lungiambula (2-4) taking on Markus Perez (2-4). Lungiambula will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Perez carries a modest Elo edge (784 to 739), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lungiambula's striker game against Perez's wrestler approach. Lungiambula brings a versatile approach, while Perez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Lungiambula is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Markus Perez over Dalcha Lungiambula. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Lungiambula, but our model sees only 46%. That 12-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Francisco Figueiredo (2-1) taking on Jerome Rivera (0-3). Rivera is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Figueiredo is rated at 954 — 289 points above Rivera's 665. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rivera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jerome Rivera over Francisco Figueiredo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rivera at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 49%. That 10-point gap favoring Rivera is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Davis (4-2) taking on Mason Jones (2-2).

Davis carries a modest Elo edge (1249 to 1175), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Davis over Mason Jones. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Davis, but our model sees only 53%. That 6-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Sergey Morozov (2-2). Nurmagomedov is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 577 points above Morozov's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morozov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morozov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morozov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Sergey Morozov. The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Nurmagomedov at 81% implied while our model sees 88% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Victoria Leonardo (1-3).

Fiorot is rated at 1641 — 861 points above Leonardo's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leonardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Leonardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Leonardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Manon Fiorot over Victoria Leonardo. The model gives Fiorot a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.