UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Wednesday, January 20, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates·14 fights
Model: 11/14(79%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Chiesa 40%60% Magny
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
LEANMarket: 43% (-3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Chiesa)
WelterweightMISS
Warlley Alves won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alves 39%61% Lazzez
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 32% (+7.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +80(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Lazzez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Lazzez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ike Villanueva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Villanueva 56%44% Moreira
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
LEANMarket: 56% (+0.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -18(favors Moreira)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Villanueva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moreira)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 79%21% Modafferi
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+5.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Modafferi)
FlyweightHIT
Matt Schnell won by Decision - Split (R3)
Schnell 54%46% Nam
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+9.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Nam)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Schnell)
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 80%20% Andrade
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Andrade)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Submission (R2)
Akhmedov 50%50% Breese
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+8.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Breese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Akhmedov)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R2)
Simon 87%13% Pirrello
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +263(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Simon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.9(favors Simon)
FlyweightHIT
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sumudaerji 71%29% Adashev
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +385(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sumudaerji)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sumudaerji)
MiddleweightMISS
Dalcha Lungiambula won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lungiambula 50%50% Perez
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Lungiambula)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Lungiambula)
FlyweightHIT
Francisco Figueiredo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Figueiredo 52%48% Rivera
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-7.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +123(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rivera)
LightweightHIT
Mike Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 56%44% Jones
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Davis)
BantamweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 89%11% Morozov
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Morozov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Morozov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Morozov)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Manon Fiorot won by KO/TKO (R2)
Fiorot 69%31% Leonardo
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Leonardo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Leonardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Leonardo)