UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny
Wednesday, January 20, 2021·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 10/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Chiesa 51%49% Magny
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+7.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Chiesa)
WelterweightMISS
Warlley Alves won by KO/TKO (R1)
Alves 40%60% Lazzez
LEANMarket: 32% (+8.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +55(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.3(favors Lazzez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Lazzez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ike Villanueva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Villanueva 45%55% Moreira
LEANMarket: 56% (-10.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +17(favors Villanueva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Villanueva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moreira)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 77%23% Modafferi
STRONGMarket: 73% (+4.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Araujo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Modafferi)
FlyweightHIT
Matt Schnell won by Decision - Split (R3)
Schnell 56%44% Nam
LEANMarket: 45% (+11.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors Nam)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Schnell)
FeatherweightHIT
Lerone Murphy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Murphy 76%24% Andrade
STRONGMarket: 74% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +113(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Andrade)
MiddleweightHIT
Omari Akhmedov won by Submission (R2)
Akhmedov 54%46% Breese
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+12.2% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +89(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Breese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Akhmedov)
BantamweightHIT
Ricky Simon won by Submission (R2)
Simon 91%9% Pirrello
STRONGMarket: 81% (+10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +208(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Simon)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.9(favors Simon)
FlyweightHIT
Sumudaerji won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sumudaerji 70%30% Adashev
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +241(favors Sumudaerji)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sumudaerji)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Sumudaerji)
MiddleweightMISS
Dalcha Lungiambula won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lungiambula 46%54% Perez
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-11.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +153(favors Lungiambula)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Lungiambula)
FlyweightMISS
Francisco Figueiredo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Figueiredo 49%51% Rivera
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +105(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Rivera)
LightweightHIT
Mike Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 53%47% Jones
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +84(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.3(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Davis)
BantamweightHIT
Umar Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R2)
Nurmagomedov 88%12% Morozov
STRONGMarket: 81% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Morozov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Morozov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Morozov)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Manon Fiorot won by KO/TKO (R2)
Fiorot 65%35% Leonardo
LEANMarket: 64% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Leonardo)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Leonardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Leonardo)