UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Tatsuro Taira (7-1) taking on HyunSung Park (3-1). Taira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Taira is rated at 1620 — 610 points above Park's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Taira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatsuro Taira over HyunSung Park. We're leaning Taira here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Mateusz Rebecki (4-2). Duncan is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 277 points above Rebecki's 1098. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Duncan looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rebecki is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Duncan the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Duncan over Mateusz Rebecki. The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Esteban Ribovics (3-2) taking on Elves Brener (3-2). Brener will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ribovics is rated at 1278 — 244 points above Brener's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ribovics's all-rounder game against Brener's striker approach. Ribovics is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brener brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribovics throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brener is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ribovics has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Esteban Ribovics over Elves Brener. The model gives Ribovics a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Nora Cornolle (3-2).

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 174 points above Cornolle's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rosa's striker game against Cornolle's all-rounder approach. Rosa brings a versatile approach, while Cornolle is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Cornolle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nora Cornolle over Karol Rosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cornolle at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 229 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. The model gives Magny a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kevin Vallejos (2-0) taking on Danny Silva (2-0). Silva is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vallejos is rated at 1367 — 317 points above Silva's 1051. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallejos throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Vallejos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Silva over Kevin Vallejos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rinya Nakamura (3-1) taking on Nathan Fletcher (1-1).

Nakamura is rated at 1183 — 274 points above Fletcher's 909. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fletcher throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nathan Fletcher over Rinya Nakamura. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fletcher at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Rodolfo Vieira (6-3) taking on Tresean Gore (2-3).

Vieira is rated at 1069 — 152 points above Gore's 916. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vieira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gore is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Vieira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vieira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rodolfo Vieira over Tresean Gore. We're leaning Vieira here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrey Pulyaev (1-1) taking on Nick Klein (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pulyaev.

Pulyaev is rated at 1009 — 218 points above Klein's 791. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Pulyaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrey Pulyaev over Nick Klein. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pulyaev at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Austin Bashi (0-1) taking on John Yannis (0-0).

Bashi is rated at 1075 — 202 points above Yannis's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bashi throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bashi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Yannis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Bashi over John Yannis. The model gives Bashi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Rafael Estevam (2-0) taking on Felipe Bunes (1-1).

Estevam is rated at 1237 — 241 points above Bunes's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bunes throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Estevam is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Estevam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Estevam over Felipe Bunes. We're leaning Estevam here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Piera Rodriguez (3-2) taking on Ketlen Souza (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1203 versus Souza at 1116. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's striker game against Souza's all-rounder approach. Rodriguez brings a versatile approach, while Souza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Souza over Piera Rodriguez. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.