UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Jack Hermansson (11-7). Hermansson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 162 points above Hermansson's 1117. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hermansson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hermansson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hermansson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hermansson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Hermansson over Marvin Vettori. The model gives Hermansson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jamahal Hill (6-3) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12).

Hill is rated at 1396 — 479 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hill's striker game against Preux's all-rounder approach. Hill brings a versatile approach, while Preux is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Ovince Saint Preux. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hill at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Justin Jaynes (1-3). Benitez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Benitez at 856 versus Jaynes at 768. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jaynes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Benitez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Justin Jaynes. We're leaning Benitez here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Roman Dolidze (9-3) taking on John Allan (0-1).

Dolidze is rated at 1546 — 632 points above Allan's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dolidze rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dolidze throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Allan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Dolidze has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Dolidze over John Allan. The model gives Dolidze a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jordan Leavitt (5-3) taking on Matt Wiman (10-7). Leavitt will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Leavitt is rated at 1198 — 329 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Leavitt's wrestler game against Wiman's knockout artist approach. Leavitt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wiman is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Leavitt over Matt Wiman. The model gives Leavitt a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Jose Quinonez (5-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Smolka at 874, Quinonez at 882. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Louis Smolka. The model gives Quinonez a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). Jackson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 1054 points above Jackson's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Topuria's knockout artist game against Jackson's wrestler approach. Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Topuria is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Damon Jackson. We're leaning Topuria here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jake Collier (5-8) taking on Gian Villante (7-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Collier at 794 versus Villante at 705. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Collier's all-rounder game against Villante's striker approach. Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Villante has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gian Villante over Jake Collier. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villante at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.