UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Alex Perez (7-6). Figueiredo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 196 points above Perez's 1293. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Figueiredo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo over Alex Perez. The model gives Figueiredo a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 75% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 64%. That 11-point gap favoring Perez is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Jennifer Maia (6-5).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 604 points above Maia's 1193. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shevchenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Jennifer Maia. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Mike Perry (7-7). Means is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Perry is rated at 1066 — 194 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Perry's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Perry brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Mike Perry. The model gives Means a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Means at 42% implied while our model sees 56% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Cynthia Calvillo (6-5-1). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 372 points above Calvillo's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cerminara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Calvillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Calvillo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Calvillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Calvillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Calvillo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cynthia Calvillo over Katlyn Cerminara. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Calvillo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Paul Craig (9-9-1) taking on Mauricio Rua (11-11-1).

Craig is rated at 1045 — 169 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Craig's wrestler game against Rua's striker approach. Craig looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rua brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Craig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paul Craig over Mauricio Rua. The model gives Craig a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Brandon Moreno (11-5-2) taking on Brandon Royval (7-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreno at 1410 versus Royval at 1314. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Moreno's wrestler game against Royval's knockout artist approach. Moreno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Royval is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Royval throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moreno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Moreno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Moreno over Brandon Royval. We're leaning Moreno here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Moreno at 64% implied while our model sees 70% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Jordan Wright (2-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Wright.

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 1034 points above Wright's 693. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Buckley is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Wright is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Wright the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wright throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Jordan Wright. The model gives Buckley a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Buckley, but our model sees only 61%. That 9-point gap favoring Wright is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Antonina Shevchenko (3-4) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Shevchenko carries a modest Elo edge (1027 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Shevchenko's wrestler game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ariane da Silva over Antonina Shevchenko. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Nicolas Dalby (7-5-1) taking on Daniel Rodriguez (9-4).

Rodriguez is rated at 1494 — 211 points above Dalby's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dalby's striker game against Rodriguez's all-rounder approach. Dalby brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dalby is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Rodriguez over Nicolas Dalby. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dalby at 27% implied while our model sees 31% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Alan Jouban (7-5) taking on Jared Gooden (2-4). Gooden will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jouban is rated at 1168 — 208 points above Gooden's 960. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jouban brings a versatile approach, while Gooden is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Gooden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jouban is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Gooden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gooden over Alan Jouban. The model gives Gooden a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Jouban, but our model sees only 41%. That 16-point gap favoring Gooden is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Daukaus (3-4) taking on Dustin Stoltzfus (3-6).

Daukaus is rated at 1170 — 158 points above Stoltzfus's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Stoltzfus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Dustin Stoltzfus. We're leaning Daukaus here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sasha Palatnikov (1-1) taking on Louis Cosce (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Palatnikov.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Palatnikov at 815, Cosce at 802. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cosce throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cosce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cosce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Cosce over Sasha Palatnikov. The model is firm on this one: Cosce at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.