UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Uriah Hall (10-9) taking on Anderson Silva (17-7).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1504 versus Silva at 1361. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hall's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Hall brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Anderson Silva. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (9-3) taking on Andre Fili (13-12). Fili will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitchell is rated at 1454 — 278 points above Fili's 1176. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mitchell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Andre Fili. The model gives Mitchell a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Greg Hardy (4-5) taking on Maurice Greene (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hardy at 1032 versus Greene at 947. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Hardy's striker game against Greene's all-rounder approach. Hardy brings a versatile approach, while Greene is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Greene is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Greg Hardy over Maurice Greene. We're leaning Hardy here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Kevin Holland (15-12) taking on Charlie Ontiveros (0-3). Holland will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holland is rated at 1375 — 715 points above Ontiveros's 660. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ontiveros has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Holland over Charlie Ontiveros. The model is firm on this one: Holland at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Holland at 85% implied while our model sees 89% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-7) taking on King Green (15-12-1).

Green is rated at 1371 — 161 points above Moises's 1210. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Green is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moises the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Thiago Moises. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Green at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Moises at 27% implied while our model sees 45% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Hernandez (10-7) taking on Chris Gruetzemacher (3-4). Hernandez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hernandez is rated at 1446 — 351 points above Gruetzemacher's 1094. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gruetzemacher throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Gruetzemacher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Hernandez over Chris Gruetzemacher. The model is firm on this one: Hernandez at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Hernandez at 79% implied while our model sees 87% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Adrian Yanez (6-3-1) taking on Victor Rodriguez (0-2). Yanez is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Yanez is rated at 1287 — 543 points above Rodriguez's 744. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Adrian Yanez over Victor Rodriguez. The model is firm on this one: Yanez at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Yanez at 80% implied while our model sees 89% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Sean Strickland (17-7) taking on Jack Marshman (3-5). Strickland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Strickland is rated at 1832 — 906 points above Marshman's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Strickland's all-rounder game against Marshman's striker approach. Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Marshman brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Strickland over Jack Marshman. The model is firm on this one: Strickland at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 77% implied while our model sees 85% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jason Witt (2-4) taking on Cole Williams (0-2). Williams is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Witt at 870 versus Williams at 769. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Witt throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Witt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Witt over Cole Williams. We're leaning Witt here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Witt at 58% implied while our model sees 67% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1) taking on Justin Ledet (3-4). Ledet will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jacoby is rated at 1411 — 656 points above Ledet's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Ledet's all-rounder approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Ledet is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ledet throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ledet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Justin Ledet. The model is firm on this one: Jacoby at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Jacoby at 76% implied while our model sees 80% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-5) taking on Kevin Natividad (0-3).

Johns is rated at 1121 — 432 points above Natividad's 688. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johns throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Natividad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Natividad over Miles Johns. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Natividad at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Johns, but our model sees only 50%. That 9-point gap favoring Natividad is worth watching.