UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Saturday, September 12, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✗✗✓✓✗✓✓✓✓
Main Card
Women's StrawweightHIT
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Split (R5)
Waterson-Gomez 53%47% Hill
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Waterson-Gomez)
LightweightHIT
Ottman Azaitar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Azaitar 61%39% Worthy
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 46% (+15.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -322(favors Worthy)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Azaitar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Worthy)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Roxanne Modafferi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Modafferi 35%65% Lee
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
LEANMarket: 27% (+8.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ed Herman won by Submission (R3)
Herman 38%62% Rodriguez
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEANMarket: 32% (+5.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +213(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Herman)
LightweightHIT
King Green won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Green 73%27% Patrick
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Patrick)
FeatherweightHIT
Billy Quarantillo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Quarantillo 75%25% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (+3.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +256(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Quarantillo)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightMISS
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 48%52% Avila
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 28% (+19.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Avila)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Eubanks)
Lightweight
Roberts 88%12% Croom
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+8.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +139(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Roberts)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexandr Romanov won by Submission (R2)
Romanov 59%41% Martinez
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
Catch WeightHIT
Jalin Turner won by Submission (R2)
Turner 88%12% Weaver
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+9.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +234(favors Turner)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Weaver)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barberena 61%39% Ivy
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 69% (-8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +333(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ivy)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sabina Mazo won by Submission (R3)
Mazo 80%20% Kish
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
STRONGMarket: 68% (+12.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +187(favors Mazo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Mazo)