UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill
Saturday, September 12, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's StrawweightMISS
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Split (R5)
Waterson-Gomez 47%53% Hill
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -13(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Waterson-Gomez)
LightweightHIT
Ottman Azaitar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Azaitar 58%42% Worthy
LEANMarket: 46% (+12.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -206(favors Worthy)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Azaitar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Worthy)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Roxanne Modafferi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Modafferi 25%75% Lee
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (-1.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lee)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ed Herman won by Submission (R3)
Herman 33%67% Rodriguez
CONFIDENTMarket: 32% (+1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Herman)
LightweightHIT
King Green won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Green 70%30% Patrick
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Green)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Patrick)
FeatherweightHIT
Billy Quarantillo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Quarantillo 67%33% Nelson
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-4.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Quarantillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Quarantillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Quarantillo)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Sijara Eubanks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eubanks 26%74% Avila
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (-1.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Avila)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Eubanks)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Eubanks)
Lightweight
Roberts 89%11% Croom
STRONGMarket: 80% (+9.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +37(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Roberts)
HeavyweightHIT
Alexandr Romanov won by Submission (R2)
Romanov 64%36% Martinez
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Martinez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Martinez)
Catch WeightHIT
Jalin Turner won by Submission (R2)
Turner 86%14% Weaver
STRONGMarket: 78% (+7.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +178(favors Turner)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Weaver)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barberena 68%32% Ivy
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-0.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +156(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ivy)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Sabina Mazo won by Submission (R3)
Mazo 78%22% Kish
STRONGMarket: 68% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Mazo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Mazo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Mazo)