UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
Saturday, September 5, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·7 fights
Model: 5/7(71%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R5)
Overeem 55%45% Sakai
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-5.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +66(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Overeem)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ovince Saint Preux won by KO/TKO (R2)
Preux 63%37% Menifield
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +196(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Menifield)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Preux)
WelterweightHIT
Michel Pereira won by Submission (R3)
Pereira 66%34% Imadaev
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +302(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Imadaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Pereira)
MiddleweightMISS
Andre Muniz won by Submission (R1)
Muniz 43%57% Fabinski
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 42% (+0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -105(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Fabinski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.2(favors Fabinski)
FeatherweightHIT
Brian Kelleher won by Submission (R1)
Kelleher 86%14% Rodriguez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +247(favors Kelleher)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Kelleher)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Kelleher)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Viviane Araujo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Araujo 49%51% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-15.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Araujo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Araujo)
Prelims
BantamweightHIT
Hunter Azure won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Azure 76%24% Smith
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 70% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -37(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Azure)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Smith)