UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
Saturday, August 29, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aleksandar Rakic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rakic 72%28% Smith
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -198(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rakic)
WelterweightHIT
Neil Magny won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magny 84%16% Lawler
STRONGMarket: 68% (+15.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +240(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Magny)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 81%19% Kim
STRONGMarket: 71% (+10.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Kim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Grasso)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Kim)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Lamas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lamas 65%35% Algeo
LEANMarket: 71% (-6.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +253(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Lamas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Lamas)
MiddleweightMISS
Impa Kasanganay won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kasanganay 47%53% Pitolo
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-10.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +60(favors Kasanganay)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Pitolo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Pitolo)
MiddleweightMISS
Zak Cummings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummings 46%54% Chirico
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +324(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Chirico)
FeatherweightHIT
Alex Caceres won by Submission (R1)
Caceres 66%34% Springer
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +124(favors Caceres)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Caceres)
WelterweightHIT
Sean Brady won by Submission (R2)
Brady 88%12% Aguilera
STRONGMarket: 79% (+8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +66(favors Brady)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Aguilera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Brady)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Polyana Viana won by Submission (R1)
Viana 48%52% Whitmire
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -222(favors Whitmire)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Viana)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Viana)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mallory Martin won by Submission (R2)
Martin 85%15% Cifers
STRONGMarket: 73% (+11.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +99(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Cifers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Cifers)