UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Anthony Smith (13-11).

Rakic is rated at 1283 — 213 points above Smith's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rakic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Anthony Smith. We're leaning Rakic here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magny at 1270, Lawler at 1297. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Magny's wrestler game against Lawler's striker approach. Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lawler brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Robbie Lawler. The model is firm on this one: Magny at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Magny at 68% implied while our model sees 84% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6). Kim is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 653 points above Kim's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Grasso's all-rounder game against Kim's striker approach. Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kim brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grasso throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Ji Yeon Kim. The model is firm on this one: Grasso at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 71% implied while our model sees 81% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricardo Lamas (10-6) taking on Bill Algeo (5-4). Algeo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lamas is rated at 1285 — 371 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lamas throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Algeo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Lamas over Bill Algeo. The model gives Lamas a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 71% for Lamas, but our model sees only 65%. That 6-point gap favoring Algeo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Impa Kasanganay (2-1) taking on Maki Pitolo (1-4).

Kasanganay is rated at 961 — 265 points above Pitolo's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pitolo throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pitolo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Kasanganay has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maki Pitolo over Impa Kasanganay. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pitolo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Kasanganay, but our model sees only 47%. That 11-point gap favoring Pitolo is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Alessio Di Chirico (4-6).

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 569 points above Chirico's 788. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cummings's all-rounder game against Chirico's striker approach. Cummings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Chirico brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Zak Cummings. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Chirico at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Austin Springer (0-0). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 304 points above Springer's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Springer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Austin Springer. We're leaning Caceres here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-1) taking on Christian Aguilera (1-1).

Brady is rated at 1658 — 743 points above Aguilera's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Brady rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguilera throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Aguilera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Brady over Christian Aguilera. The model is firm on this one: Brady at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Brady at 79% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Polyana Viana (4-6) taking on Emily Whitmire (2-3). Viana will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Viana is rated at 868 — 165 points above Whitmire's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Viana throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Viana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Whitmire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Emily Whitmire over Polyana Viana. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Whitmire at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Viana at 44% implied while our model sees 48% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mallory Martin (1-2) taking on Hannah Cifers (2-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Martin.

There's a real Elo separation here: Martin at 794 versus Cifers at 690. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cifers throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cifers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Martin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mallory Martin over Hannah Cifers. The model is firm on this one: Martin at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Martin at 73% implied while our model sees 85% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.