UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Saturday, August 8, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 74%26% Oleinik
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+9.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +344(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Oleinik)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Weidman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Weidman 51%49% Akhmedov
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Weidman)
MiddleweightHIT
Darren Stewart won by Submission (R1)
Stewart 60%40% Pitolo
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 63% (-2.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +187(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Pitolo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Pitolo)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Yana Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 62%38% Stoliarenko
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 60% (+2.3% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +142(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Santos)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by KO/TKO (R1)
Dariush 75%25% Holtzman
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+7.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Dariush)
WelterweightMISS
Tim Means won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Means 40%60% Staropoli
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 41% (-1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -38(favors Staropoli)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Means)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by KO/TKO (R3)
Holland 85%15% Buckley
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Holland)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 76%24% Munoz
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +211(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Haqparast)
MiddleweightHIT
Andrew Sanchez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sanchez 54%46% Turman
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+8.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -150(favors Turman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Turman)
FeatherweightMISS
Gavin Tucker won by Submission (R3)
Tucker 37%63% Jaynes
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 53% (-15.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -119(favors Jaynes)
→Striking volume advantage: -20.8(favors Jaynes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Tucker)
FeatherweightHIT
Youssef Zalal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zalal 92%8% Barrett
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+10.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +238(favors Zalal)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Zalal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Zalal)
BantamweightMISS
Irwin Rivera won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rivera 46%54% AlQaisi
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -66(favors AlQaisi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors AlQaisi)