UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Kattar.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Kattar at 1231, Ige at 1235. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Kattar's striker game against Ige's all-rounder approach. Kattar brings a versatile approach, while Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ige is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Calvin Kattar over Dan Ige. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kattar at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 72% for Kattar, but our model sees only 52%. That 19-point gap favoring Ige is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Tim Elliott (9-11) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5).

Elliott is rated at 1241 — 431 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Elliott's wrestler game against Benoit's striker approach. Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Benoit brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Benoit has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Benoit over Tim Elliott. The model gives Benoit a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Elliott, but our model sees only 36%. That 19-point gap favoring Benoit is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-3) taking on Cody Stamann (7-6-1). Rivera will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera is rated at 1277 — 345 points above Stamann's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stamann throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Stamann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Stamann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Stamann over Jimmie Rivera. We're leaning Stamann here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 55% for Rivera, but our model sees only 26%. That 29-point gap favoring Stamann is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Taila Santos (4-2) taking on Molly McCann (7-6). Santos is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Santos is rated at 1262 — 428 points above McCann's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Santos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McCann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Santos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taila Santos over Molly McCann. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Santos at 42% implied while our model sees 59% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mounir Lazzez (2-1) taking on Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6). Lazzez is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lazzez at 972, Alhassan at 973. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alhassan throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alhassan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lazzez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Mounir Lazzez. We're leaning Alhassan here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on John Phillips (1-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Chimaev.

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 1195 points above Phillips's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Chimaev's submission artist game against Phillips's striker approach. Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Phillips brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chimaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over John Phillips. The model is firm on this one: Chimaev at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Chimaev at 76% implied while our model sees 79% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Lerone Murphy (8-0-1) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6).

Murphy is rated at 1654 — 826 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Murphy rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ramos throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Lerone Murphy. The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Modestas Bukauskas (7-4) taking on Andreas Michailidis (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Bukauskas.

Bukauskas is rated at 1168 — 365 points above Michailidis's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Michailidis throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Michailidis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Michailidis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Modestas Bukauskas over Andreas Michailidis. The model gives Bukauskas a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Chris Fishgold (1-2).

Gordon is rated at 1209 — 312 points above Fishgold's 897. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fishgold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Fishgold over Jared Gordon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fishgold at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Gordon, but our model sees only 46%. That 12-point gap favoring Fishgold is worth watching.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Liana Jojua (1-2) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5). Belbita is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Jojua carries a modest Elo edge (777 to 739), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belbita throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jojua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Belbita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liana Jojua over Diana Belbita. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jojua at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Jojua at 37% implied while our model sees 55% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jack Shore (6-2) taking on Aaron Phillips (0-3).

Shore is rated at 1070 — 336 points above Phillips's 733. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shore throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Shore is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Shore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Shore over Aaron Phillips. The model is firm on this one: Shore at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Shore at 86% implied while our model sees 90% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.