UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Saturday, July 11, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Model Record: 12/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Usman 79%21% Masvidal
STRONGMarket: 69% (+10.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +152(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Usman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Usman)
FeatherweightHIT
Alexander Volkanovski won by Decision - Split (R5)
Volkanovski 67%33% Holloway
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Volkanovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Volkanovski)
BantamweightHIT
Petr Yan won by KO/TKO (R5)
Yan 82%18% Aldo
STRONGMarket: 67% (+14.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +31(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Yan)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Rose Namajunas won by Decision - Split (R3)
Namajunas 63%37% Andrade
LEANMarket: 65% (-2.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Andrade)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Andrade)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Submission (R1)
Ribas 90%10% VanZant
STRONGMarket: 87% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +184(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Ribas)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Ribas)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jiri Prochazka won by KO/TKO (R2)
Prochazka 51%49% Oezdemir
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+9.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -512(favors Oezdemir)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.5(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Oezdemir)
WelterweightMISS
Muslim Salikhov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Salikhov 41%59% Santos
LEANMarket: 55% (-14.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -84(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Salikhov)
FeatherweightHIT
Makwan Amirkhani won by Submission (R1)
Amirkhani 80%20% Henry
STRONGMarket: 65% (+15.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +102(favors Amirkhani)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Henry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Amirkhani)
LightweightHIT
Leonardo Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 64%36% Bogatov
LEANMarket: 62% (+2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +470(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Santos)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 64%36% Grishin
LEANMarket: 50% (+13.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +105(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Tybura)
FlyweightHIT
Raulian Paiva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Paiva 63%37% Zhumagulov
LEANMarket: 61% (+1.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Paiva)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Paiva)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zhumagulov)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Karol Rosa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rosa 71%29% Melo
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +205(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.8(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Melo)
BantamweightHIT
Davey Grant won by KO/TKO (R3)
Grant 56%44% Day
LEANMarket: 39% (+16.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -17(favors Day)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Day)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Grant)