UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Kamaru Usman (15-3) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Usman is rated at 1828 — 249 points above Masvidal's 1579. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Usman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Usman the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Jorge Masvidal. The model is firm on this one: Usman at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Usman at 69% implied while our model sees 79% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Max Holloway (22-8). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway carries a modest Elo edge (1897 to 1824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Volkanovski's all-rounder game against Holloway's knockout artist approach. Volkanovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkanovski over Max Holloway. We're leaning Volkanovski here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8). Aldo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 449 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Yan's all-rounder game against Aldo's striker approach. Yan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aldo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Jose Aldo. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 67% implied while our model sees 82% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 306 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Andrade is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Andrade the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Jessica Andrade. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Paige VanZant (5-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ribas at 1048, VanZant at 1038. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Ribas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Paige VanZant. The model is firm on this one: Ribas at 90%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jiri Prochazka (5-2) taking on Volkan Oezdemir (8-7). Prochazka will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prochazka is rated at 1806 — 305 points above Oezdemir's 1501. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prochazka's all-rounder game against Oezdemir's striker approach. Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oezdemir brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oezdemir throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oezdemir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Prochazka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jiri Prochazka over Volkan Oezdemir. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Prochazka at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Prochazka at 42% implied while our model sees 51% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1). Santos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Salikhov at 1183 versus Santos at 1041. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Salikhov's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Salikhov brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Muslim Salikhov. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 55% for Salikhov, but our model sees only 41%. That 14-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Danny Henry (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Amirkhani at 965, Henry at 956. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Danny Henry. The model is firm on this one: Amirkhani at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Amirkhani at 65% implied while our model sees 80% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Roman Bogatov (0-0). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Santos carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 989), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Bogatov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Santos over Roman Bogatov. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Maxim Grishin (2-2).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 233 points above Grishin's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Grishin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Maxim Grishin. The model gives Tybura a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tybura at 50% implied while our model sees 64% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Raulian Paiva (3-3) taking on Zhalgas Zhumagulov (1-5). Paiva is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Paiva is rated at 1007 — 243 points above Zhumagulov's 764. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Paiva's striker game against Zhumagulov's wrestler approach. Paiva brings a versatile approach, while Zhumagulov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Paiva throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhumagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Zhumagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raulian Paiva over Zhalgas Zhumagulov. The model gives Paiva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Vanessa Melo (0-3).

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 271 points above Melo's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 7.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Melo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Melo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karol Rosa over Vanessa Melo. We're leaning Rosa here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Martin Day (0-3). Day is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Grant is rated at 1200 — 510 points above Day's 690. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Day throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Davey Grant over Martin Day. The model gives Grant a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Grant at 39% implied while our model sees 56% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.