UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 231 points above Hooker's 1450. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Dan Hooker. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Perry (7-7) taking on Mickey Gall (6-6). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Perry is rated at 1066 — 306 points above Gall's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perry's striker game against Gall's wrestler approach. Perry brings a versatile approach, while Gall looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perry throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Perry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Perry over Mickey Gall. The model is firm on this one: Perry at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Perry at 74% implied while our model sees 80% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Greene (4-3) taking on Gian Villante (7-10). Greene is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Greene is rated at 906 — 201 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Greene's all-rounder game against Villante's striker approach. Greene is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Villante brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Greene has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maurice Greene over Gian Villante. The model is firm on this one: Greene at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Greene at 68% implied while our model sees 79% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Kyle Daukaus (3-4).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 527 points above Daukaus's 1170. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Daukaus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Kyle Daukaus. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Allen at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 73% for Allen, but our model sees only 54%. That 19-point gap favoring Daukaus is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Takashi Sato (2-4) taking on Jason Witt (2-3). Sato will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sato carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 824), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sato's striker game against Witt's wrestler approach. Sato brings a versatile approach, while Witt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sato throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sato is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Witt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takashi Sato over Jason Witt. The model gives Sato a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 70% for Sato, but our model sees only 63%. That 7-point gap favoring Witt is worth watching.

The Catch Weight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Sean Woodson (7-1-1). Woodson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Erosa carries a modest Elo edge (1280 to 1235), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Both fighters bring momentum: Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Woodson has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodson throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Erosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Woodson over Julian Erosa. The model is firm on this one: Woodson at 86%. The market implies 18% for Erosa, but our model sees only 14%. That 4-point gap favoring Woodson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Khama Worthy (2-2) taking on Luis Pena (4-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Pena.

Pena is rated at 1146 — 364 points above Worthy's 782. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Worthy throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luis Pena over Khama Worthy. We're leaning Pena here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Worthy, but our model sees only 26%. That 4-point gap favoring Pena is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tanner Boser (4-5) taking on Philipe Lins (3-2). Lins will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lins is rated at 1256 — 272 points above Boser's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lins has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Boser has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tanner Boser over Philipe Lins. The model gives Boser a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Boser at 48% implied while our model sees 61% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Kay Hansen (1-2) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hansen at 850 versus Frey at 730. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Frey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Frey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kay Hansen over Jinh Yu Frey. The model gives Hansen a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 63% for Hansen, but our model sees only 60%. That 3-point gap favoring Frey is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Jordan Griffin (1-3).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 648 points above Griffin's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Youssef Zalal over Jordan Griffin. We're leaning Zalal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Zalal at 54% implied while our model sees 69% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.