UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns
Saturday, May 30, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·11 fights
Model: 10/10(100%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Burns 53%47% Woodley
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+16.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -280(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Burns)
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sakai 64%36% Ivanov
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 53% (+10.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Ivanov)
Catch WeightHIT
Billy Quarantillo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Quarantillo 59%41% Carlyle
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 52% (+7.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -26(favors Carlyle)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Carlyle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Quarantillo)
LightweightHIT
Roosevelt Roberts won by Submission (R2)
Roberts 81%19% Weaver
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +284(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Roberts)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Mackenzie Dern won by Submission (R1)
Dern 88%12% Cifers
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Cifers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Dern)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 67%33% Shevchenko
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Shevchenko)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Daniel Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 63%37% Green
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +267(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.7(favors Rodriguez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Green)
Light Heavyweight
Hill 69%31% Abreu
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +538(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Abreu)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Royval won by Submission (R2)
Royval 52%48% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Elliott)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Elliott)
BantamweightHIT
Casey Kenney won by Submission (R1)
Kenney 79%21% Smolka
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+6.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Kenney)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Kenney)
FeatherweightHIT
Chris Gutierrez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gutierrez 68%32% Morales
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Gutierrez)