UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira
Saturday, July 12, 2025·Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✗
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 19%81% Teixeira
STRONG
→Elo gap: +263(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -11.7(favors Teixeira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Lewis)
Welterweight✓
Gabriel Bonfim won by Decision - Split (R3)
Bonfim 58%42% Thompson
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +5(favors Bonfim)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Bonfim)
Featherweight✓
Steve Garcia won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garcia 58%42% Kattar
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +179(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Kattar)
Featherweight✓
Morgan Charriere won by KO/TKO (R3)
Charriere 56%44% Landwehr
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Landwehr)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Landwehr)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Charriere)
Heavyweight✓
Vitor Petrino won by Submission (R1)
Petrino 73%27% Lane
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +189(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lane)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Petrino)
Light Heavyweight✗
Tuco Tokkos won by Submission (R2)
Tokkos 31%69% Tafa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -201(favors Tafa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Tokkos)
Welterweight✗
Chris Curtis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Curtis 37%63% Griffin
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Griffin)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Curtis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Griffin)
Welterweight✓
Jake Matthews won by Submission (R1)
Matthews 51%49% Njokuani
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +54(favors Matthews)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Njokuani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Matthews)
Women's Flyweight✓
Eduarda Moura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moura 72%28% Murphy
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -154(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Moura)
Heavyweight✗
Valter Walker won by Submission (R1)
Walker 49%51% Nzechukwu
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -87(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Walker)
Lightweight✓
Mike Davis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Davis 71%29% Ramirez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +282(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Davis)
Women's Strawweight✓
Fatima Kline won by KO/TKO (R3)
Kline 68%32% Martinez
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +126(favors Kline)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Martinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Kline)