UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Tallison Teixeira (1-1). Teixeira is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lewis at 1366 versus Teixeira at 1226. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 11.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tallison Teixeira over Derrick Lewis. The model is firm on this one: Teixeira at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-8-1). Thompson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 290 points above Thompson's 1329. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Bonfim's submission artist game against Thompson's striker approach. Bonfim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonfim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Stephen Thompson. The model gives Bonfim a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on Calvin Kattar (7-7). Garcia will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 361 points above Kattar's 1231. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Garcia's knockout artist game against Kattar's all-rounder approach. Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kattar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kattar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over Calvin Kattar. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Morgan Charriere (3-2) taking on Nate Landwehr (5-4). Landwehr will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Charriere is rated at 1168 — 189 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Charriere is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Landwehr has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Nate Landwehr. The model gives Charriere a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Austen Lane (1-3). Lane is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Petrino is rated at 1195 — 412 points above Lane's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lane throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Petrino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Austen Lane. We're leaning Petrino here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tuco Tokkos (0-2) taking on Junior Tafa (2-4).

Tokkos is rated at 999 — 171 points above Tafa's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokkos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Tafa over Tuco Tokkos. We're leaning Tafa here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Curtis (5-4) taking on Max Griffin (8-9).

There's a real Elo separation here: Curtis at 1258 versus Griffin at 1152. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Curtis throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Griffin over Chris Curtis. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Chidi Njokuani (5-4). Njokuani is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 213 points above Njokuani's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Matthews's all-rounder game against Njokuani's striker approach. Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Njokuani brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Njokuani throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Chidi Njokuani. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matthews at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Eduarda Moura (3-1) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Moura at 1142, Murphy at 1171. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Moura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Moura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eduarda Moura over Lauren Murphy. We're leaning Moura here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Valter Walker (3-1) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Walker is rated at 1314 — 242 points above Nzechukwu's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Walker rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Walker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Valter Walker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nzechukwu at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Davis (4-2) taking on Mitch Ramirez (0-1).

Davis is rated at 1249 — 366 points above Ramirez's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Davis over Mitch Ramirez. We're leaning Davis here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Fatima Kline (2-1) taking on Melissa Martinez (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Kline.

Kline is rated at 1257 — 371 points above Martinez's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kline is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Martinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fatima Kline over Melissa Martinez. We're leaning Kline here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.