UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The Korean Zombie: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Frankie Edgar (18-10-1). Jung will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 1528 — 343 points above Edgar's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chan Sung Jung over Frankie Edgar. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jung at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Jung, but our model sees only 50%. That 14-point gap favoring Edgar is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Volkan Oezdemir (8-7) taking on Aleksandar Rakic (6-4). Rakic is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oezdemir is rated at 1501 — 218 points above Rakic's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Oezdemir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Volkan Oezdemir. The model gives Rakic a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Dooho Choi (4-3-1).

Jourdain carries a modest Elo edge (1354 to 1314), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Jourdain's wrestler game against Choi's striker approach. Jourdain looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Choi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Choi throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dooho Choi over Charles Jourdain. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Da Woon Jung (4-3-1) taking on Mike Rodriguez (2-4). Rodriguez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 979 — 169 points above Rodriguez's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jung's wrestler game against Rodriguez's striker approach. Jung looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rodriguez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over Da Woon Jung. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Marc-Andre Barriault (6-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barriault.

Park is rated at 1235 — 280 points above Barriault's 954. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barriault is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Park the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Barriault is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Barriault has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Marc-Andre Barriault. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Pingyuan Liu (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kang.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kang at 1029 versus Liu at 923. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over Pingyuan Liu. We're leaning Kang here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Tanner Boser (4-5). Gane is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gane is rated at 1884 — 900 points above Boser's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Boser's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Boser brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Boser throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Tanner Boser. The model is firm on this one: Gane at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features SeungWoo Choi (4-6) taking on Suman Mokhtarian (0-1). Choi is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Choi carries a modest Elo edge (821 to 775), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mokhtarian throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Choi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Mokhtarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: SeungWoo Choi over Suman Mokhtarian. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Choi at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Omar Morales (3-3) taking on Dong Hyun Ma (3-4). Morales will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morales at 826, Ma at 838. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ma throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ma is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omar Morales over Dong Hyun Ma. The model gives Morales a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 68% for Morales, but our model sees only 64%. That 4-point gap favoring Ma is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-3) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7). Schnell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pantoja is rated at 1497 — 598 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexandre Pantoja over Matt Schnell. The model is firm on this one: Pantoja at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Pantoja at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Said Nurmagomedov (7-3). Nurmagomedov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 229 points above Nurmagomedov's 1181. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Raoni Barcelos. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nurmagomedov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Miranda Granger (1-2). Granger is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lemos is rated at 1335 — 580 points above Granger's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lemos throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lemos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Granger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Granger over Amanda Lemos. The model is firm on this one: Granger at 78%. The market implies 36% for Lemos, but our model sees only 22%. That 14-point gap favoring Granger is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alatengheili (5-2-1) taking on Ryan Benoit (3-5).

Alatengheili is rated at 1129 — 319 points above Benoit's 810. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benoit throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Alatengheili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alatengheili over Ryan Benoit. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alatengheili at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.