UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Saturday, November 2, 2019·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R3)
Masvidal 64%36% Diaz
LEANMarket: 58% (+5.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +2(favors Masvidal)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Diaz)
MiddleweightMISS
Darren Till won by Decision - Split (R3)
Till 28%72% Gastelum
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-6.0% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -189(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Till)
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thompson 51%49% Luque
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-0.1% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lewis 58%42% Ivanov
LEANMarket: 51% (+7.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +265(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Ivanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ivanov)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lee 58%42% Gillespie
LEANMarket: 40% (+18.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -80(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Gillespie)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Corey Anderson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Anderson 48%52% Walker
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.8% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +77(favors Anderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Anderson)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Burgos 59%41% Amirkhani
LEANMarket: 67% (-8.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -56(favors Amirkhani)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Amirkhani)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Shahbazyan 70%30% Tavares
CONFIDENTMarket: 59% (+10.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Shahbazyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.7(favors Shahbazyan)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rozenstruik 65%35% Arlovski
LEANMarket: 58% (+6.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +27(favors Rozenstruik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Arlovski)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 62%38% Maia
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Maia)
WelterweightMISS
Lyman Good won by KO/TKO (R3)
Good 40%60% Rencountre
LEANMarket: 51% (-11.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -38(favors Rencountre)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rencountre)
FeatherweightMISS
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dawodu 47%53% Arce
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-4.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Arce)