UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
Saturday, November 2, 2019·New York City, New York, USA·12 fights
Model: 10/12(83%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Jorge Masvidal won by KO/TKO (R3)
Masvidal 61%39% Diaz
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 58% (+3.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Diaz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Diaz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Diaz)
MiddleweightMISS
Darren Till won by Decision - Split (R3)
Till 29%71% Gastelum
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-4.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -212(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Till)
WelterweightHIT
Stephen Thompson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Thompson 61%39% Luque
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 51% (+10.2% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -97(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.2(favors Luque)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Luque)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lewis 63%37% Ivanov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 51% (+11.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +256(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Ivanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ivanov)
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lee 51%49% Gillespie
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+11.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -55(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.6(favors Gillespie)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Anderson 56%44% Walker
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 39% (+17.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -95(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Walker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Anderson)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Burgos 65%35% Amirkhani
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 67% (-2.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -108(favors Amirkhani)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Amirkhani)
MiddleweightHIT
Edmen Shahbazyan won by KO/TKO (R1)
Shahbazyan 65%35% Tavares
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 59% (+5.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -84(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Shahbazyan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.7(favors Shahbazyan)
HeavyweightHIT
Jairzinho Rozenstruik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rozenstruik 72%28% Arlovski
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+13.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -12(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Arlovski)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Arlovski)
Early Prelims
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 60%40% Maia
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +88(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Maia)
WelterweightMISS
Lyman Good won by KO/TKO (R3)
Good 34%66% Rencountre
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (-17.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -35(favors Rencountre)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors Good)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Rencountre)
FeatherweightHIT
Hakeem Dawodu won by Decision - Split (R3)
Dawodu 58%42% Arce
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 52% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +149(favors Dawodu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Dawodu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Arce)