UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
Saturday, October 26, 2019·Kallang, Singapore
Model Record: 8/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Demian Maia won by Submission (R3)
Maia 61%39% Askren
LEANMarket: 41% (+20.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +421(favors Maia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Maia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Askren)
LightweightMISS
Stevie Ray won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Ray 26%74% Johnson
CONFIDENTMarket: 30% (-3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Ray)
LightweightHIT
Beneil Dariush won by Submission (R1)
Dariush 70%30% Camacho
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+7.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +281(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Camacho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Dariush)
HeavyweightHIT
Ciryl Gane won by Submission (R3)
Gane 59%41% Mayes
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Gane)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Gane)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mayes)
WelterweightHIT
Muslim Salikhov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Salikhov 64%36% Staropoli
LEANMarket: 60% (+3.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Staropoli)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Staropoli)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Randa Markos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Markos 51%49% Yoder
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Markos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Yoder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Markos)
LightweightHIT
Rafael Fiziev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fiziev 55%45% White
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-8.3% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -76(favors White)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors White)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors White)
FeatherweightHIT
Movsar Evloev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Evloev 67%33% Barzola
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+3.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -74(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Barzola)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Barzola)
HeavyweightHIT
Sergei Pavlovich won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pavlovich 56%44% Greene
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -128(favors Greene)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Greene)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Greene)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Loma Lookboonmee won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lookboonmee 48%52% Albu
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +19(favors Lookboonmee)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.1(favors Albu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Albu)
HeavyweightMISS
Raphael Pessoa won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pessoa 26%74% Hughes
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (-5.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -63(favors Hughes)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Hughes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hughes)