UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Ben Askren (1-1).

Maia is rated at 1371 — 194 points above Askren's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Askren is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Ben Askren. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 41% implied while our model sees 61% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1245 to 1193), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ray's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Ray is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ray is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Stevie Ray. We're leaning Johnson here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 30% for Ray, but our model sees only 26%. That 4-point gap favoring Johnson is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 647 points above Camacho's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dariush's wrestler game against Camacho's striker approach. Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Camacho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Frank Camacho. We're leaning Dariush here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 63% implied while our model sees 70% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Ciryl Gane (10-2) taking on Don'Tale Mayes (4-6).

Gane is rated at 1884 — 1035 points above Mayes's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gane's all-rounder game against Mayes's striker approach. Gane is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Mayes brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gane throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mayes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane over Don'Tale Mayes. The model gives Gane a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Muslim Salikhov (9-4) taking on Laureano Staropoli (2-3).

Salikhov is rated at 1183 — 382 points above Staropoli's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Staropoli throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Staropoli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muslim Salikhov over Laureano Staropoli. The model gives Salikhov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Salikhov at 60% implied while our model sees 64% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Markos is rated at 974 — 208 points above Yoder's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Markos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Yoder is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Markos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoder throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randa Markos over Ashley Yoder. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Markos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Alex White (4-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring White.

Fiziev is rated at 1312 — 406 points above White's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while White is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving White the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. White throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. White is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Alex White. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiziev at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 63% for Fiziev, but our model sees only 55%. That 8-point gap favoring White is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (8-0) taking on Enrique Barzola (6-3).

Evloev is rated at 1715 — 644 points above Barzola's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Evloev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barzola throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Enrique Barzola. We're leaning Evloev here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (7-3) taking on Maurice Greene (4-3). Pavlovich will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pavlovich is rated at 1663 — 756 points above Greene's 906. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pavlovich's striker game against Greene's all-rounder approach. Pavlovich brings a versatile approach, while Greene is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Greene throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Greene is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Greene has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Maurice Greene. The model gives Pavlovich a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loma Lookboonmee (7-2) taking on Aleksandra Albu (2-1).

Lookboonmee is rated at 1089 — 172 points above Albu's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lookboonmee rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Albu throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Albu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Lookboonmee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandra Albu over Loma Lookboonmee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Albu at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Raphael Pessoa (1-1) taking on Jeff Hughes (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pessoa at 904 versus Hughes at 812. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Hughes over Raphael Pessoa. We're leaning Hughes here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 31% for Pessoa, but our model sees only 26%. That 5-point gap favoring Hughes is worth watching.