UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Saturday, October 12, 2019·Tampa, Florida, USA·14 fights
Model: 10/14(71%)
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Main Card
Women's StrawweightHIT
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jedrzejczyk 62%38% Waterson-Gomez
Over/UnderOver 71%
Under 29%Over 71%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +45(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Waterson-Gomez)
FeatherweightMISS
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 36%64% Gracie
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 36% (-0.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +114(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.7(favors Gracie)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 49%51% Vick
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-9.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Price)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribas 65%35% Dern
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 41% (+24.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Ribas)
LightweightMISS
Matt Frevola won by Decision - Split (R3)
Frevola 43%57% Pena
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 42% (+0.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -299(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Frevola)
MiddleweightMISS
Eryk Anders won by Decision - Split (R3)
Anders 40%60% Meerschaert
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 55% (-14.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -173(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Meerschaert)
Prelims
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R2)
Spann 55%45% Clark
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UPMarket: 62% (-6.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +317(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Clark)
LightweightHIT
Mike Davis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Davis 78%22% Gifford
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +46(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Gifford)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Gifford)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 63%37% Griffin
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 45% (+17.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +107(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Griffin)
FlyweightHIT
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Submission (R1)
Figueiredo 62%38% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 63% (-1.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +403(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Figueiredo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Elliott)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by KO/TKO (R3)
Vera 62%38% Ewell
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 57% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +248(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Vera)
WelterweightHIT
Miguel Baeza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Baeza 83%17% Aldana
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 69% (+14.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +230(favors Baeza)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Aldana)
MiddleweightHIT
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vettori 87%13% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+10.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +193(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Sanchez)
Women's FlyweightHIT
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 67%33% Mueller
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +314(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mueller)