UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Saturday, October 12, 2019·Tampa, Florida, USA
Model Record: 10/14Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's StrawweightMISS
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jedrzejczyk 50%50% Waterson-Gomez
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -46(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Waterson-Gomez)
FeatherweightMISS
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Swanson 43%57% Gracie
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -4(favors Gracie)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.7(favors Gracie)
WelterweightHIT
Niko Price won by KO/TKO (R1)
Price 51%49% Vick
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-7.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Price)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Price)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Amanda Ribas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ribas 61%39% Dern
LEANMarket: 41% (+20.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Ribas)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Dern)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Ribas)
LightweightHIT
Matt Frevola won by Decision - Split (R3)
Frevola 54%46% Pena
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+12.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -239(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Frevola)
MiddleweightMISS
Eryk Anders won by Decision - Split (R3)
Anders 46%54% Meerschaert
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-9.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -152(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Anders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Meerschaert)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Submission (R2)
Spann 56%44% Clark
LEANMarket: 62% (-5.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +200(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Spann)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Clark)
LightweightHIT
Mike Davis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Davis 73%27% Gifford
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +29(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Gifford)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Gifford)
WelterweightMISS
Alex Morono won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Morono 50%50% Griffin
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Griffin)
FlyweightHIT
Deiveson Figueiredo won by Submission (R1)
Figueiredo 57%43% Elliott
LEANMarket: 63% (-5.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +349(favors Figueiredo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Figueiredo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Elliott)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by KO/TKO (R3)
Vera 54%46% Ewell
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-2.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +271(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Vera)
WelterweightHIT
Miguel Baeza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Baeza 83%17% Aldana
STRONGMarket: 69% (+14.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +164(favors Baeza)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.4(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Aldana)
MiddleweightHIT
Marvin Vettori won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vettori 84%16% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 77% (+7.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +76(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Sanchez)
Women's FlyweightHIT
JJ Aldrich won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldrich 67%33% Mueller
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +160(favors Aldrich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Aldrich)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Mueller)