UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Israel Adesanya (13-4) taking on Robert Whittaker (17-6). Adesanya is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Adesanya carries a modest Elo edge (1559 to 1528), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Adesanya's all-rounder game against Whittaker's striker approach. Adesanya is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Whittaker brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Adesanya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Israel Adesanya over Robert Whittaker. The model gives Adesanya a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Adesanya at 53% implied while our model sees 64% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Dan Hooker (14-9) taking on Al Iaquinta (9-5). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 255 points above Iaquinta's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Iaquinta brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Hooker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Hooker over Al Iaquinta. We're leaning Hooker here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Serghei Spivac (8-6) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Spivac will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Spivac is rated at 1355 — 248 points above Tuivasa's 1107. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Spivac's submission artist game against Tuivasa's striker approach. Spivac is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Tuivasa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Serghei Spivac. The model gives Tuivasa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Dhiego Lima (4-6) taking on Luke Jumeau (2-1). Lima is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jumeau carries a modest Elo edge (1005 to 943), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jumeau throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jumeau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lima has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dhiego Lima over Luke Jumeau. We're leaning Lima here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lima at 56% implied while our model sees 66% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Yorgan De Castro (1-2) taking on Justin Tafa (4-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tafa at 938 versus Castro at 805. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tafa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Tafa over Yorgan De Castro. The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Castro, but our model sees only 40%. That 9-point gap favoring Tafa is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Matthews (15-7) taking on Rostem Akman (0-1).

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 404 points above Akman's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Rostem Akman. The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Matthews at 80% implied while our model sees 85% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Callan Potter (1-1) taking on Maki Pitolo (1-4). Pitolo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Potter is rated at 903 — 207 points above Pitolo's 696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Potter throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pitolo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pitolo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maki Pitolo over Callan Potter. We're leaning Pitolo here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Potter at 24% implied while our model sees 31% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Brad Riddell (4-2) taking on Jamie Mullarkey (6-6). Mullarkey is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Riddell at 1088 versus Mullarkey at 947. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullarkey throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullarkey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mullarkey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamie Mullarkey over Brad Riddell. The model gives Mullarkey a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Riddell, but our model sees only 45%. That 16-point gap favoring Mullarkey is worth watching.

The Women's Featherweight matchup features Megan Anderson (3-2) taking on Zarah Fairn (0-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Anderson.

Anderson is rated at 1187 — 414 points above Fairn's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fairn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Fairn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Megan Anderson over Zarah Fairn. The model gives Anderson a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ji Yeon Kim (3-6) taking on Nadia Kassem (1-1). Kim is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kassem at 862 versus Kim at 723. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kassem is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ji Yeon Kim over Nadia Kassem. The model gives Kim a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Khalid Taha (1-3) taking on Bruno Silva (4-4). Taha will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1203 — 380 points above Taha's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taha throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bruno Silva over Khalid Taha. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.