UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Saturday, September 28, 2019·Copenhagen, Denmark
Model Record: 6/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cannonier 33%67% Hermansson
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+5.1% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -180(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Hermansson)
LightweightMISS
Mark Madsen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Madsen 32%68% Belluardo
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +151(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Belluardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Belluardo)
WelterweightMISS
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 47%53% Nelson
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-4.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Burns)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cutelaba 72%28% Jr.
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: +64(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Cutelaba)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ovince Saint Preux won by Submission (R2)
Preux 46%54% Oleksiejczuk
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Oleksiejczuk)
WelterweightMISS
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dalby 34%66% Oliveira
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (-9.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -305(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Dalby)
MiddleweightHIT
John Phillips won by KO/TKO (R1)
Phillips 56%44% Amedovski
LEANMarket: 46% (+10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -175(favors Amedovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Amedovski)
MiddleweightHIT
Makhmud Muradov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muradov 56%44% Chirico
LEANMarket: 60% (-3.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Chirico)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Chirico)
WelterweightHIT
Ismail Naurdiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naurdiev 70%30% Bahadurzada
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -147(favors Bahadurzada)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Bahadurzada)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Bahadurzada)
FeatherweightMISS
Giga Chikadze won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chikadze 39%61% Davis
LEANMarket: 40% (-1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Davis)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Lina Lansberg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lansberg 22%78% Chiasson
STRONGMarket: 21% (+0.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -223(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lansberg)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diakiese 52%48% Vannata
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-8.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Vannata)
BantamweightHIT
Jack Shore won by Submission (R3)
Shore 64%36% Hernandez
LEANMarket: 67% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +33(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Hernandez)