UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Saturday, September 28, 2019·Copenhagen, Denmark·13 fights
Model: 6/13(46%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightMISS
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cannonier 32%68% Hermansson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+3.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -157(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Hermansson)
LightweightMISS
Mark Madsen won by KO/TKO (R1)
Madsen 35%65% Belluardo
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +236(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Belluardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Belluardo)
WelterweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Burns 51%49% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-0.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -106(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Burns)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ion Cutelaba won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cutelaba 70%30% Jr.
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Cutelaba)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Cutelaba)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ovince Saint Preux won by Submission (R2)
Preux 42%58% Oleksiejczuk
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -108(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Oleksiejczuk)
WelterweightMISS
Nicolas Dalby won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dalby 48%52% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+4.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -495(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Dalby)
Prelims
MiddleweightHIT
John Phillips won by KO/TKO (R1)
Phillips 61%39% Amedovski
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 46% (+14.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -237(favors Amedovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Phillips)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Amedovski)
MiddleweightMISS
Makhmud Muradov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Muradov 49%51% Chirico
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-10.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Chirico)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Chirico)
WelterweightHIT
Ismail Naurdiev won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Naurdiev 74%26% Bahadurzada
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+7.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -218(favors Bahadurzada)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Bahadurzada)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Bahadurzada)
FeatherweightMISS
Giga Chikadze won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chikadze 39%61% Davis
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 40% (-1.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Davis)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Lina Lansberg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lansberg 22%78% Chiasson
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 21% (+1.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -254(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Chiasson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lansberg)
LightweightHIT
Marc Diakiese won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Diakiese 58%42% Vannata
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 61% (-3.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Vannata)
BantamweightHIT
Jack Shore won by Submission (R3)
Shore 65%35% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-2.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +41(favors Shore)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Hernandez)