UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6) taking on Jamahal Hill (6-3). Hill is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jr. at 1506 versus Hill at 1396. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamahal Hill over Khalil Rountree Jr.. The model gives Hill a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Rafael Fiziev (7-4) taking on Ignacio Bahamondes (6-2). Bahamondes is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bahamondes carries a modest Elo edge (1386 to 1312), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Bahamondes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Fiziev's striker game against Bahamondes's all-rounder approach. Fiziev brings a versatile approach, while Bahamondes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bahamondes throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fiziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Bahamondes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ignacio Bahamondes over Rafael Fiziev. The model gives Bahamondes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Rizvan Kuniev (0-1). Blaydes will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 473 points above Kuniev's 1161. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kuniev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kuniev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Curtis Blaydes over Rizvan Kuniev. The model gives Blaydes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Myktybek Orolbai (3-1) taking on Tofiq Musayev (0-0). Orolbai will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Orolbai is rated at 1374 — 428 points above Musayev's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Orolbai throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Orolbai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Musayev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Myktybek Orolbai over Tofiq Musayev. The model is firm on this one: Orolbai at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1) taking on Nikolas Motta (3-2).

Sadykhov is rated at 1278 — 207 points above Motta's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sadykhov's all-rounder game against Motta's striker approach. Sadykhov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Motta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadykhov throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadykhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Motta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nazim Sadykhov over Nikolas Motta. The model gives Sadykhov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-1) taking on Bogdan Grad (1-1).

Naimov is rated at 1112 — 232 points above Grad's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grad throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Grad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Naimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Muhammad Naimov over Bogdan Grad. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Naimov at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Seokhyeon Ko (1-0) taking on Oban Elliott (3-1).

Ko is rated at 1247 — 250 points above Elliott's 997. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Ko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oban Elliott over Seokhyeon Ko. We're leaning Elliott here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features JunYong Park (9-3) taking on Ismail Naurdiev (3-3).

Park carries a modest Elo edge (1235 to 1183), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Naurdiev is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Park the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Park throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Naurdiev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Naurdiev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ismail Naurdiev over JunYong Park. The model gives Naurdiev a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Daria Zhelezniakova (1-1) taking on Melissa Mullins (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Zhelezniakova at 1111 versus Mullins at 1006. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mullins throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mullins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Zhelezniakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daria Zhelezniakova over Melissa Mullins. The model gives Zhelezniakova a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Klaudia Sygula (1-1) taking on Irina Alekseeva (1-2).

Sygula is rated at 1075 — 247 points above Alekseeva's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alekseeva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Alekseeva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Alekseeva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Klaudia Sygula over Irina Alekseeva. The model gives Sygula a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-1) taking on Azat Maksum (1-2).

Ulanbekov is rated at 1261 — 426 points above Maksum's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ulanbekov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Maksum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tagir Ulanbekov over Azat Maksum. The model gives Ulanbekov a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mohammed Usman (3-2) taking on Hamdy Abdelwahab (1-1). Usman will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman carries a modest Elo edge (1087 to 1048), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Usman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdelwahab is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Abdelwahab has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hamdy Abdelwahab over Mohammed Usman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Abdelwahab at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.