UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 793 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gaethje's striker game against Cerrone's all-rounder approach. Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Cerrone is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Gaethje over Donald Cerrone. The model gives Gaethje a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Nikita Krylov (11-9).

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 196 points above Krylov's 1400. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Teixeira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Teixeira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Glover Teixeira. The model gives Krylov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Teixeira, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring Krylov is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Todd Duffee (3-2) taking on Jeff Hughes (0-2).

Duffee is rated at 1133 — 321 points above Hughes's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffee throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Duffee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeff Hughes over Todd Duffee. The model gives Hughes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Duffee, but our model sees only 38%. That 8-point gap favoring Hughes is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Tristan Connelly (1-1) taking on Michel Pereira (9-5). Pereira is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pereira is rated at 1113 — 167 points above Connelly's 946. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Connelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michel Pereira over Tristan Connelly. The model is firm on this one: Pereira at 80%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4).

Hall is rated at 1378 — 234 points above Junior's 1144. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Hall's striker game against Junior's wrestler approach. Hall brings a versatile approach, while Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Uriah Hall. The model gives Junior a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-6) taking on Jimmy Crute (5-4-2). Cirkunov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Crute is rated at 1151 — 283 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cirkunov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Crute looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Crute the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Crute has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmy Crute over Misha Cirkunov. The model gives Crute a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (4-4) taking on Marcin Tybura (14-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tybura at 1242 versus Sakai at 1122. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Sakai's striker game against Tybura's all-rounder approach. Sakai brings a versatile approach, while Tybura is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sakai throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Sakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Augusto Sakai over Marcin Tybura. The model gives Sakai a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sakai at 54% implied while our model sees 57% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-4) taking on Cole Smith (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Smith.

There's a real Elo separation here: Johns at 1044 versus Smith at 919. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cole Smith over Miles Johns. The model gives Smith a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 56% for Johns, but our model sees only 45%. That 11-point gap favoring Smith is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Hunter Azure (2-1) taking on Brad Katona (4-4). Azure is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Azure is rated at 1017 — 179 points above Katona's 838. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Katona throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Katona is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Azure has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hunter Azure over Brad Katona. The model gives Azure a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Azure at 46% implied while our model sees 56% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Jordan Griffin (1-3).

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 367 points above Griffin's 884. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Griffin over Chas Skelly. The model gives Griffin a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Louis Smolka (8-8) taking on Ryan MacDonald (0-1). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Smolka at 874 versus MacDonald at 787. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Smolka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Smolka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Louis Smolka over Ryan MacDonald. We're leaning Smolka here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Austin Hubbard (4-7) taking on Kyle Prepolec (0-3).

Hubbard carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 773), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prepolec throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Prepolec is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Prepolec has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Austin Hubbard over Kyle Prepolec. The model gives Hubbard a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.