UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Saturday, September 14, 2019·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada·12 fights
Model: 6/11(55%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gaethje 67%33% Cerrone
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+4.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +86(favors Gaethje)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Glover Teixeira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Teixeira 53%47% Krylov
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+3.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +166(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Krylov)
Heavyweight
Duffee 40%60% Hughes
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 46% (-6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +495(favors Duffee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Duffee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hughes)
WelterweightMISS
Tristan Connelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Connelly 24%76% Pereira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 20% (+3.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -270(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pereira)
MiddleweightMISS
Uriah Hall won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hall 41%59% Junior
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Junior)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 35%65% Crute
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -170(favors Crute)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Cirkunov)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sakai 53%47% Tybura
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-1.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +40(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Tybura)
BantamweightMISS
Miles Johns won by Decision - Split (R3)
Johns 45%55% Smith
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -173(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Smith)
BantamweightHIT
Hunter Azure won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Azure 54%46% Katona
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+7.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -45(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Katona)
FeatherweightMISS
Chas Skelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Skelly 35%65% Griffin
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +383(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Skelly)
BantamweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smolka 64%36% MacDonald
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 67% (-3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +204(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Smolka)
LightweightHIT
Austin Hubbard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hubbard 60%40% Prepolec
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 56% (+3.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +68(favors Hubbard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Prepolec)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Prepolec)