UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Saturday, September 14, 2019·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Model Record: 5/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gaethje 60%40% Cerrone
LEANMarket: 63% (-2.9% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Cerrone)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Glover Teixeira won by Decision - Split (R3)
Teixeira 44%56% Krylov
LEANMarket: 49% (-5.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +147(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Krylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Krylov)
Heavyweight
Duffee 38%62% Hughes
LEANMarket: 46% (-8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +321(favors Duffee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Duffee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hughes)
WelterweightMISS
Tristan Connelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Connelly 20%80% Pereira
STRONGMarket: 20% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -166(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Pereira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pereira)
MiddleweightMISS
Uriah Hall won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hall 36%64% Junior
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -43(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Junior)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 42%58% Crute
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -130(favors Crute)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Cirkunov)
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sakai 57%43% Tybura
LEANMarket: 54% (+3.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Tybura)
BantamweightMISS
Miles Johns won by Decision - Split (R3)
Johns 45%55% Smith
LEANMarket: 56% (-11.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -98(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Smith)
BantamweightHIT
Hunter Azure won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Azure 56%44% Katona
LEANMarket: 46% (+10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -31(favors Katona)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Katona)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Katona)
FeatherweightMISS
Chas Skelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Skelly 43%57% Griffin
LEANMarket: 41% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +260(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Skelly)
BantamweightHIT
Louis Smolka won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smolka 66%34% MacDonald
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +49(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Smolka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Smolka)
LightweightHIT
Austin Hubbard won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hubbard 59%41% Prepolec
LEANMarket: 56% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +50(favors Hubbard)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Prepolec)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Prepolec)