UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zhang: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Zhang Weili (10-2) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Weili.

Weili is rated at 1649 — 534 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Weili rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Weili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Zhang Weili. The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 229 points above Santos's 1041. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jingliang's striker game against Santos's all-rounder approach. Jingliang brings a versatile approach, while Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jingliang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Li Jingliang. The model is firm on this one: Santos at 81%. The market implies 29% for Jingliang, but our model sees only 19%. That 10-point gap favoring Santos is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Kai Kara-France (8-4) taking on Mark De La Rosa (2-4). Kara-France will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kara-France is rated at 1351 — 615 points above Rosa's 736. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kara-France's striker game against Rosa's all-rounder approach. Kara-France brings a versatile approach, while Rosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kara-France throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kara-France is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Kara-France has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kai Kara-France over Mark De La Rosa. The model gives Kara-France a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Song Kenan (6-4) taking on Derrick Krantz (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kenan at 1007 versus Krantz at 918. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kenan throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Krantz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Kenan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Kenan over Derrick Krantz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kenan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mizuki (2-1) taking on Wu Yanan (1-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Yanan.

Mizuki is rated at 1185 — 482 points above Yanan's 703. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanan throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yanan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Mizuki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wu Yanan over Mizuki. The model gives Yanan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on JunYong Park (9-3). Hernandez is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 368 points above Park's 1235. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hernandez throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Park has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over JunYong Park. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sumudaerji (4-4) taking on Andre Soukhamthath (2-4).

Sumudaerji is rated at 1054 — 167 points above Soukhamthath's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sumudaerji's all-rounder game against Soukhamthath's knockout artist approach. Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Soukhamthath is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soukhamthath throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Soukhamthath is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Soukhamthath has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Soukhamthath over Sumudaerji. The model gives Soukhamthath a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Da Woon Jung (4-3-1) taking on Khadis Ibragimov (0-3).

Jung is rated at 979 — 239 points above Ibragimov's 740. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ibragimov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ibragimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ibragimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khadis Ibragimov over Da Woon Jung. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ibragimov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Damir Ismagulov (5-1) taking on Thiago Moises (8-6). Ismagulov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ismagulov carries a modest Elo edge (1202 to 1124), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ismagulov's striker game against Moises's wrestler approach. Ismagulov brings a versatile approach, while Moises looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ismagulov throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ismagulov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ismagulov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damir Ismagulov over Thiago Moises. The model gives Ismagulov a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 65% for Ismagulov, but our model sees only 62%. That 3-point gap favoring Moises is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alatengheili (5-2-1) taking on Batgerel Danaa (3-3). Danaa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alatengheili is rated at 1129 — 242 points above Danaa's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danaa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Danaa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Danaa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Batgerel Danaa over Alatengheili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Danaa at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Karol Rosa (7-4) taking on Lara Procopio (1-1).

Rosa is rated at 1201 — 250 points above Procopio's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Procopio throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Procopio is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Procopio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lara Procopio over Karol Rosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Procopio at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.