UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 334 points above Lawler's 1297. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Covington's wrestler game against Lawler's striker approach. Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lawler brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Robbie Lawler. The model is firm on this one: Covington at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 72% implied while our model sees 84% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Clay Guida (18-18).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 288 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Guida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Clay Guida. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Nasrat Haqparast (10-4) taking on Joaquim Silva (6-5). Haqparast is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Haqparast at 1235 versus Silva at 1139. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Haqparast rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Haqparast's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Haqparast brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Haqparast throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Haqparast is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Haqparast has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nasrat Haqparast over Joaquim Silva. We're leaning Haqparast here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 76% for Haqparast, but our model sees only 68%. That 8-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Trevin Giles (7-6). Meerschaert will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Meerschaert at 867, Giles at 845. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Giles is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Giles throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Giles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trevin Giles over Gerald Meerschaert. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Giles at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Meerschaert at 39% implied while our model sees 49% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Dong Hyun Ma (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Holtzman at 988 versus Ma at 838. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Holtzman's all-rounder game against Ma's striker approach. Holtzman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ma brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holtzman throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Holtzman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ma has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Dong Hyun Ma. The model is firm on this one: Holtzman at 77%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6) taking on Darko Stosic (1-2). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 253 points above Stosic's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stosic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Darko Stosic. We're leaning Nzechukwu here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Nzechukwu at 48% implied while our model sees 68% — a 21-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Mickey Gall (6-6) taking on Salim Touahri (0-2). Gall is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Touahri at 854 versus Gall at 760. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Touahri throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Touahri has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Salim Touahri over Mickey Gall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Touahri at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Antonina Shevchenko (3-4) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7).

Shevchenko is rated at 1027 — 224 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shevchenko the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pudilova throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonina Shevchenko over Lucie Pudilova. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Shevchenko at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Shevchenko, but our model sees only 54%. That 4-point gap favoring Pudilova is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Matt Schnell (7-7) taking on Jordan Espinosa (2-3).

Schnell carries a modest Elo edge (899 to 864), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Schnell's wrestler game against Espinosa's striker approach. Schnell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Espinosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Espinosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Espinosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jordan Espinosa over Matt Schnell. The model gives Espinosa a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Mara Romero Borella (2-4).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 415 points above Borella's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Murphy's striker game against Borella's wrestler approach. Murphy brings a versatile approach, while Borella looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Borella is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Borella has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mara Romero Borella over Lauren Murphy. We're leaning Borella here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Murphy, but our model sees only 27%. That 7-point gap favoring Borella is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Claudio Silva (5-2) taking on Cole Williams (0-1).

Silva is rated at 1053 — 213 points above Williams's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudio Silva over Cole Williams. The model is firm on this one: Silva at 80%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Granger (1-2) taking on Hannah Goldy (1-3). Granger is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Goldy carries a modest Elo edge (812 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Goldy throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Goldy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Goldy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Granger over Hannah Goldy. The model gives Granger a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Granger at 48% implied while our model sees 65% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.