UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Saturday, August 3, 2019·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Covington 84%16% Lawler
STRONGMarket: 72% (+11.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +356(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Covington)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 57%43% Guida
LEANMarket: 58% (-0.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -21(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by KO/TKO (R2)
Haqparast 68%32% Silva
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-8.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -192(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Haqparast)
MiddleweightMISS
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R3)
Meerschaert 49%51% Giles
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+10.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -39(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Giles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Meerschaert)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Holtzman 77%23% Ma
STRONGMarket: 78% (-0.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +272(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Holtzman)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nzechukwu 68%32% Stosic
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (+20.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -130(favors Stosic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Stosic)
WelterweightMISS
Mickey Gall won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gall 48%52% Touahri
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+0.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +125(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Touahri)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Gall)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Antonina Shevchenko won by Submission (R2)
Shevchenko 54%46% Pudilova
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-4.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +56(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Pudilova)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Shevchenko)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R1)
Schnell 40%60% Espinosa
LEANMarket: 42% (-2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Espinosa)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Lauren Murphy won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murphy 27%73% Borella
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-7.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Borella)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Borella)
WelterweightHIT
Claudio Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 80%20% Williams
STRONGMarket: 82% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +379(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Silva)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Granger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Granger 65%35% Goldy
LEANMarket: 48% (+17.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Goldy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Goldy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Goldy)