UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Saturday, August 3, 2019·Newark, New Jersey, USA·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Colby Covington won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Covington 76%24% Lawler
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+3.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +296(favors Covington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.8(favors Covington)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 50%50% Guida
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-8.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -63(favors Guida)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Guida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Miller)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by KO/TKO (R2)
Haqparast 80%20% Silva
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+3.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -184(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Haqparast)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R3)
Meerschaert 55%45% Giles
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+16.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Giles)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Giles)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Meerschaert)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by KO/TKO (R2)
Holtzman 82%18% Ma
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +234(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Holtzman)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Kennedy Nzechukwu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Nzechukwu 71%29% Stosic
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 48% (+23.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -180(favors Stosic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Stosic)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Mickey Gall won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gall 56%44% Touahri
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 47% (+8.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +180(favors Gall)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Touahri)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Gall)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Antonina Shevchenko won by Submission (R2)
Shevchenko 34%66% Pudilova
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (-24.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +50(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Pudilova)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Shevchenko)
FlyweightMISS
Matt Schnell won by Submission (R1)
Schnell 44%56% Espinosa
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 42% (+2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +110(favors Schnell)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Espinosa)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Lauren Murphy won by KO/TKO (R3)
Murphy 28%72% Borella
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
CONFIDENTMarket: 34% (-6.6% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -191(favors Borella)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Borella)
WelterweightHIT
Claudio Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 84%16% Williams
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +511(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Silva)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Miranda Granger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Granger 60%40% Goldy
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 48% (+12.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Goldy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Goldy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Goldy)