UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Germaine de Randamie (7-2) taking on Aspen Ladd (4-2). Randamie is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Randamie is rated at 1341 — 217 points above Ladd's 1124. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Randamie's striker game against Ladd's wrestler approach. Randamie brings a versatile approach, while Ladd looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ladd throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ladd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Randamie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Germaine de Randamie over Aspen Ladd. The model gives Randamie a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Randamie at 46% implied while our model sees 60% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Urijah Faber (11-6) taking on Ricky Simon (10-5).

Faber carries a modest Elo edge (1297 to 1223), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Faber looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Faber the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faber throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Simon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricky Simon over Urijah Faber. We're leaning Simon here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Faber at 25% implied while our model sees 31% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-5) taking on Mirsad Bektic (6-3).

Emmett is rated at 1356 — 346 points above Bektic's 1010. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Bektic's wrestler approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Bektic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bektic throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Emmett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Josh Emmett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bektic at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Emmett at 39% implied while our model sees 48% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Karl Roberson (4-5) taking on Wellington Turman (3-5).

Turman carries a modest Elo edge (866 to 817), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Roberson throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Turman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Roberson over Wellington Turman. The model gives Roberson a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (9-7-1) taking on Cezar Ferreira (9-5). Ferreira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Vettori is rated at 1280 — 247 points above Ferreira's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marvin Vettori over Cezar Ferreira. We're leaning Vettori here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mike Rodriguez (2-4) taking on John Allan (0-1). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Allan at 915 versus Rodriguez at 810. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Allan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Allan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Rodriguez over John Allan. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Rodriguez at 79% implied while our model sees 83% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Sheymon Moraes (2-2). Fili is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 164 points above Moraes's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Sheymon Moraes. The model gives Fili a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Nicco Montano (1-0). Pena will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pena is rated at 1323 — 317 points above Montano's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montano throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Nicco Montano. We're leaning Pena here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 67% implied while our model sees 74% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Ryan Hall (4-1) taking on Darren Elkins (19-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1214 versus Elkins at 1113. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elkins throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Hall over Darren Elkins. The model gives Hall a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hall at 49% implied while our model sees 63% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Pingyuan Liu (2-1).

Martinez is rated at 1343 — 420 points above Liu's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Liu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pingyuan Liu over Jonathan Martinez. The model gives Liu a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Brianna Fortino (1-0) taking on Livinha Souza (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Souza.

There's a real Elo separation here: Fortino at 998 versus Souza at 857. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Souza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Fortino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Brianna Fortino. We're leaning Souza here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Benito Lopez (2-1) taking on Vince Morales (3-7). Lopez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Lopez is rated at 1006 — 154 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vince Morales over Benito Lopez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.