UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Henry Cejudo (10-5) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-5). Moraes is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cejudo is rated at 1416 — 261 points above Moraes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cejudo brings a versatile approach, while Moraes is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Moraes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cejudo throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cejudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Henry Cejudo over Marlon Moraes. The model gives Cejudo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Cejudo at 42% implied while our model sees 57% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

Shevchenko is rated at 1797 — 847 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Eye looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Eye the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shevchenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Shevchenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Valentina Shevchenko over Jessica Eye. The model is firm on this one: Shevchenko at 89%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Donald Cerrone (23-13). Ferguson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ferguson at 1065, Cerrone at 1054. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Donald Cerrone. The model is firm on this one: Ferguson at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Ferguson at 66% implied while our model sees 78% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Jimmie Rivera (7-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yan.

Yan is rated at 1869 — 593 points above Rivera's 1277. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Yan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Petr Yan over Jimmie Rivera. The model is firm on this one: Yan at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Yan at 76% implied while our model sees 79% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Blagoy Ivanov (3-4) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Tuivasa is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Ivanov carries a modest Elo edge (1148 to 1107), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Ivanov's all-rounder game against Tuivasa's striker approach. Ivanov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tuivasa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuivasa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tuivasa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Blagoy Ivanov. The model gives Tuivasa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tatiana Suarez (7-1) taking on Nina Nunes (4-4).

Suarez is rated at 1531 — 376 points above Nunes's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Suarez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nunes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Suarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Suarez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.1 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tatiana Suarez over Nina Nunes. The model is firm on this one: Suarez at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aljamain Sterling (16-5) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Sterling will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 472 points above Munhoz's 1211. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sterling's all-rounder game against Munhoz's knockout artist approach. Sterling is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Munhoz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Pedro Munhoz. The model is firm on this one: Sterling at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Sterling at 59% implied while our model sees 78% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Alexa Grasso (8-4-1) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9). Grasso is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Grasso is rated at 1376 — 505 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Grasso's all-rounder game against Kowalkiewicz's striker approach. Grasso is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kowalkiewicz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grasso is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grasso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexa Grasso over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. We're leaning Grasso here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Grasso at 51% implied while our model sees 65% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Calvin Kattar (7-7) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Kattar.

Lamas carries a modest Elo edge (1285 to 1231), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Kattar is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lamas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lamas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kattar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lamas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Lamas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Calvin Kattar over Ricardo Lamas. The model gives Kattar a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Kattar, but our model sees only 58%. That 3-point gap favoring Lamas is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Yan Xiaonan (9-3) taking on Angela Hill (13-15).

Xiaonan is rated at 1412 — 339 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yan Xiaonan over Angela Hill. The model gives Xiaonan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Xiaonan, but our model sees only 63%. That 4-point gap favoring Hill is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Darren Stewart (5-6) taking on Bevon Lewis (1-2). Lewis is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Stewart carries a modest Elo edge (940 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lewis throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Lewis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Stewart over Bevon Lewis. The model gives Stewart a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stewart at 39% implied while our model sees 61% — a 22-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Eddie Wineland (6-9) taking on Grigory Popov (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wineland at 865, Popov at 843. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wineland throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Popov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Popov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Eddie Wineland over Grigory Popov. The model gives Wineland a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Katlyn Cerminara (11-5) taking on Joanne Wood (8-8). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Cerminara is rated at 1283 — 181 points above Wood's 1101. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Katlyn Cerminara over Joanne Wood. The model gives Cerminara a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.