UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
Saturday, June 8, 2019·Chicago, Illinois, USA·13 fights
Model: 12/13(92%)
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Main Card
BantamweightHIT
Henry Cejudo won by KO/TKO (R3)
Cejudo 51%49% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 42% (+8.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Cejudo)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Valentina Shevchenko won by KO/TKO (R2)
Shevchenko 86%14% Eye
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 89% (-3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +350(favors Shevchenko)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Shevchenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Shevchenko)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ferguson 82%18% Cerrone
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+16.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +160(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cerrone)
BantamweightHIT
Petr Yan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yan 81%19% Rivera
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +105(favors Yan)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Yan)
HeavyweightMISS
Blagoy Ivanov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ivanov 48%52% Tuivasa
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -103(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Tuivasa)
Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Tatiana Suarez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Suarez 92%8% Nunes
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
STRONGMarket: 85% (+6.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +227(favors Suarez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.1(favors Suarez)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sterling 79%21% Munhoz
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 59% (+20.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -99(favors Munhoz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Munhoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Sterling)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Alexa Grasso won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Grasso 54%46% Kowalkiewicz
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Grasso)
FeatherweightHIT
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kattar 62%38% Lamas
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 61% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -166(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lamas)
Early Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Yan Xiaonan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Xiaonan 73%27% Hill
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+5.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +338(favors Xiaonan)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Hill)
MiddleweightHIT
Darren Stewart won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Stewart 63%37% Lewis
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 39% (+24.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +140(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Stewart)
BantamweightHIT
Eddie Wineland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Wineland 58%42% Popov
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 58% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +249(favors Wineland)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Popov)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 62%38% Wood
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +3(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Wood)