UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith
Saturday, June 1, 2019·Stockholm, Sweden
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R4)
Smith 21%79% Gustafsson
STRONGMarket: 26% (-4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -6(favors Gustafsson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gustafsson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aleksandar Rakic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rakic 80%20% Manuwa
STRONGMarket: 69% (+11.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +137(favors Rakic)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Rakic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Rakic)
FeatherweightHIT
Makwan Amirkhani won by Submission (R2)
Amirkhani 51%49% Fishgold
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +212(favors Amirkhani)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Fishgold)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Fishgold)
LightweightHIT
Christos Giagos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Giagos 51%49% Hadzovic
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+11.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -265(favors Hadzovic)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Hadzovic)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Giagos)
FeatherweightMISS
Daniel Teymur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teymur 38%62% Jo
LEANMarket: 43% (-5.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -230(favors Jo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.6(favors Teymur)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Teymur)
WelterweightHIT
Sergey Khandozhko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Khandozhko 57%43% Akman
LEANMarket: 59% (-2.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Akman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Akman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Akman)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Lina Lansberg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lansberg 32%68% Evinger
CONFIDENTMarket: 24% (+7.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +34(favors Lansberg)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Lansberg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Evinger)
LightweightHIT
Leonardo Santos won by KO/TKO (R1)
Santos 52%48% Ray
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-8.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +293(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Ray)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Santos)
LightweightHIT
Frank Camacho won by KO/TKO (R2)
Camacho 64%36% Hein
LEANMarket: 55% (+8.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Camacho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Camacho)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Bea Malecki won by Submission (R2)
Malecki 43%57% Santana
LEANMarket: 53% (-9.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Santana)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Santana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Santana)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Devin Clark won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Clark 50%50% Stosic
TOSS-UPMarket: 50% (+0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -140(favors Stosic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Clark)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Clark)
LightweightHIT
Joel Alvarez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Alvarez 51%49% Belluardo
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -65(favors Belluardo)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Alvarez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Belluardo)