UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). Gustafsson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gustafsson at 1169 versus Smith at 1070. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gustafsson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gustafsson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Anthony Smith. The model is firm on this one: Gustafsson at 79%. The market implies 26% for Smith, but our model sees only 21%. That 5-point gap favoring Gustafsson is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Aleksandar Rakic (6-4) taking on Jimi Manuwa (6-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rakic.

Rakic is rated at 1283 — 213 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rakic's striker game against Manuwa's all-rounder approach. Rakic brings a versatile approach, while Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rakic throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Manuwa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandar Rakic over Jimi Manuwa. The model is firm on this one: Rakic at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Rakic at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Chris Fishgold (1-2). Amirkhani is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Amirkhani carries a modest Elo edge (965 to 897), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fishgold throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Fishgold is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Chris Fishgold. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Amirkhani at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Christos Giagos (6-7) taking on Damir Hadzovic (4-5).

Giagos carries a modest Elo edge (940 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hadzovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hadzovic throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Giagos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Hadzovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christos Giagos over Damir Hadzovic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Giagos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Giagos at 40% implied while our model sees 51% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Daniel Teymur (1-3) taking on Sung Bin Jo (0-0). Jo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jo carries a modest Elo edge (866 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teymur throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teymur is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Jo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sung Bin Jo over Daniel Teymur. The model gives Jo a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 43% for Teymur, but our model sees only 38%. That 5-point gap favoring Jo is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergey Khandozhko (1-1) taking on Rostem Akman (0-1). Khandozhko is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Khandozhko is rated at 1193 — 302 points above Akman's 891. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Akman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Akman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Akman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergey Khandozhko over Rostem Akman. The model gives Khandozhko a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lina Lansberg (4-6) taking on Tonya Evinger (0-2). Evinger will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lansberg carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 801), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Evinger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lansberg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tonya Evinger over Lina Lansberg. We're leaning Evinger here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lansberg at 24% implied while our model sees 32% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Stevie Ray (6-4). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ray is rated at 1193 — 154 points above Santos's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ray throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leonardo Santos over Stevie Ray. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Santos, but our model sees only 52%. That 8-point gap favoring Ray is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Frank Camacho (2-5) taking on Nick Hein (4-3). Camacho is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Camacho at 790, Hein at 818. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camacho throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Camacho is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Hein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Camacho over Nick Hein. The model gives Camacho a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Camacho at 55% implied while our model sees 64% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bea Malecki (2-0) taking on Duda Santana (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Malecki at 973 versus Santana at 890. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santana throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Santana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Santana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Duda Santana over Bea Malecki. The model gives Santana a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 53% for Malecki, but our model sees only 43%. That 10-point gap favoring Santana is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Devin Clark (8-8) taking on Darko Stosic (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Clark at 944 versus Stosic at 819. That 125-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Stosic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Devin Clark over Darko Stosic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Clark at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Danilo Belluardo (0-1). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 790 points above Belluardo's 774. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Belluardo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belluardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Danilo Belluardo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alvarez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.