UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Saturday, April 27, 2019·Sunrise, Florida, USA·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Hermansson 71%29% Souza
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: -253(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Hermansson)
HeavyweightHIT
Greg Hardy won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hardy 81%19% Smoliakov
Over/UnderUnder 64%
Under 64%Over 36%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +444(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Hardy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Smoliakov)
WelterweightMISS
Mike Perry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perry 48%52% Oliveira
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+8.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -150(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Oliveira)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Glover Teixeira won by Submission (R2)
Teixeira 49%51% Cutelaba
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Cutelaba)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Cutelaba)
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sandhagen 66%34% Lineker
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (+24.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -183(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.2(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Sandhagen)
LightweightHIT
Roosevelt Roberts won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Roberts 88%12% Gifford
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +129(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gifford)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Takashi Sato won by KO/TKO (R2)
Sato 69%31% Saunders
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+1.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -54(favors Saunders)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Saunders)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Saunders)
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sakai 73%27% Arlovski
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+13.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Arlovski)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Sakai)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Arlovski)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Esparza 48%52% Jandiroba
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UPMarket: 52% (-3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Esparza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Esparza)
LightweightHIT
Gilbert Burns won by Submission (R2)
Burns 64%36% Davis
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 70% (-6.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +365(favors Burns)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Burns)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Burns)
LightweightHIT
Jim Miller won by Submission (R1)
Miller 68%32% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +228(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Miller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Miller)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Angela Hill won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hill 85%15% Esquibel
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+1.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +43(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Hill)
WelterweightMISS
Dhiego Lima won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lima 49%51% McGee
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+9.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -261(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors McGee)