UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Saturday, March 30, 2019·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gaethje 61%39% Barboza
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 47% (+13.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Barboza)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Submission (R1)
Hermansson 62%38% Branch
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 56% (+6.6% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +257(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Hermansson)
FeatherweightHIT
Josh Emmett won by KO/TKO (R3)
Emmett 57%43% Johnson
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 44% (+12.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -11(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Emmett)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 50%50% Kowalkiewicz
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +41(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Waterson-Gomez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Paul Craig won by Submission (R3)
Craig 36%64% Nzechukwu
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
LEANMarket: 37% (-1.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Craig)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 63%37% Moraes
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -13(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.5(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moraes)
Prelims
Women's StrawweightHIT
Marina Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 64%36% Aguilar
Over/UnderOver 67%
Under 33%Over 67%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +117(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Aguilar)
LightweightHIT
Desmond Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 93%7% Pearson
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+11.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +230(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Green)
FeatherweightMISS
Kevin Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 49%51% Barzola
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Barzola)
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holland 78%22% Meerschaert
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+11.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -193(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Meerschaert)
BantamweightMISS
Casey Kenney won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenney 20%80% Borg
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 31% (-10.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -365(favors Borg)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Borg)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moroz 33%67% Mazo
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -47(favors Mazo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Moroz)
BantamweightHIT
Alex Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 62%38% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Perez)