UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje
Saturday, March 30, 2019·Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Justin Gaethje won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gaethje 53%47% Barboza
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+6.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -179(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Gaethje)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Barboza)
MiddleweightHIT
Jack Hermansson won by Submission (R1)
Hermansson 65%35% Branch
LEANMarket: 56% (+9.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +248(favors Hermansson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Hermansson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Hermansson)
FeatherweightMISS
Josh Emmett won by KO/TKO (R3)
Emmett 46%54% Johnson
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+1.2% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Emmett)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Michelle Waterson-Gomez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Waterson-Gomez 44%56% Kowalkiewicz
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +55(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Kowalkiewicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Waterson-Gomez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Paul Craig won by Submission (R3)
Craig 43%57% Nzechukwu
LEANMarket: 37% (+5.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -96(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Craig)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Yusuff 61%39% Moraes
LEAN
→Elo gap: +10(favors Yusuff)
→Striking volume advantage: +7.5(favors Yusuff)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moraes)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Marina Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 68%32% Aguilar
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +108(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Aguilar)
LightweightHIT
Desmond Green won by KO/TKO (R1)
Green 89%11% Pearson
STRONGMarket: 82% (+6.8% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Pearson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Green)
FeatherweightMISS
Kevin Aguilar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aguilar 49%51% Barzola
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+3.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -121(favors Barzola)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Aguilar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.4(favors Barzola)
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holland 70%30% Meerschaert
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -140(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Holland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Meerschaert)
BantamweightMISS
Casey Kenney won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kenney 23%77% Borg
STRONGMarket: 31% (-7.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -286(favors Borg)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Borg)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Maryna Moroz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moroz 34%66% Mazo
CONFIDENTMarket: 41% (-7.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Mazo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Moroz)
BantamweightHIT
Alex Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 57%43% Rosa
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +136(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Perez)