UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw
Saturday, January 19, 2019·Brooklyn, New York, USA·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
FlyweightMISS
Henry Cejudo won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cejudo 37%63% Dillashaw
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -227(favors Dillashaw)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Dillashaw)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Cejudo)
HeavyweightMISS
Allen Crowder won by DQ (R2)
Crowder 31%69% Hardy
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+11.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -209(favors Hardy)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.9(favors Crowder)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Hardy)
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gillespie 93%7% Medeiros
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 80% (+12.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Medeiros)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.7(favors Gillespie)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 67%33% Ortiz
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (-0.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +108(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.5(favors Ortiz)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by Submission (R2)
VanZant 66%34% Ostovich
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -8(favors Ostovich)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors VanZant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Ostovich)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Glover Teixeira won by Submission (R1)
Teixeira 36%64% Roberson
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 50% (-13.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +339(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Roberson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Roberson)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Donald Cerrone won by KO/TKO (R2)
Cerrone 51%49% Hernandez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+15.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Hernandez)
Women's FlyweightHIT
Joanne Wood won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wood 71%29% Silva
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Wood)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.5(favors Wood)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Wood)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alonzo Menifield won by KO/TKO (R1)
Menifield 73%27% Moreira
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Moreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Moreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Moreira)
BantamweightHIT
Cory Sandhagen won by Submission (R1)
Sandhagen 88%12% Bautista
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.9% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +407(favors Sandhagen)
→Striking volume advantage: +9.8(favors Sandhagen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Sandhagen)
LightweightHIT
Dennis Bermudez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bermudez 58%42% Edwards
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 47% (+10.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +350(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Bermudez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Bermudez)
WelterweightHIT
Geoff Neal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Neal 60%40% Muhammad
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 65% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -228(favors Muhammad)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Neal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Muhammad)
WelterweightMISS
Chance Rencountre won by Submission (R1)
Rencountre 38%62% Stewart
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 39% (-1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -22(favors Stewart)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rencountre)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stewart)