UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Saturday, December 1, 2018·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia·12 fights
Model: 9/12(75%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightMISS
Junior Dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 46%54% Tuivasa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +247(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Santos)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Mauricio Rua won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rua 35%65% Pedro
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
CONFIDENTMarket: 19% (+16.4% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: +190(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Rua)
HeavyweightHIT
Justin Willis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Willis 72%28% Hunt
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (+19.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -130(favors Hunt)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Willis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Willis)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Submission (R3)
Martin 53%47% Matthews
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +69(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Matthews)
FeatherweightHIT
Sodiq Yusuff won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yusuff 88%12% Mokhtarian
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Mokhtarian)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Mokhtarian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Mokhtarian)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jimmy Crute won by Submission (R3)
Crute 52%48% Craig
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Craig)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Aleksei Kunchenko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kunchenko 66%34% Okami
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -99(favors Okami)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Kunchenko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Okami)
FlyweightMISS
Wilson Reis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reis 37%63% Nguyen
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 43% (-6.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Nguyen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Reis)
WelterweightHIT
Keita Nakamura won by Decision - Split (R3)
Nakamura 58%42% Touahri
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 61% (-2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +136(favors Nakamura)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Touahri)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.6(favors Nakamura)
FlyweightHIT
Kai Kara-France won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kara-France 86%14% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+9.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +237(favors Kara-France)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Garcia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Garcia)
LightweightHIT
Christos Giagos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Giagos 75%25% Hirota
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-1.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Giagos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Hirota)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Hirota)
LightweightHIT
Damir Ismagulov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ismagulov 85%15% Gorgees
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+2.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gorgees)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Gorgees)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gorgees)