UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
Saturday, November 17, 2018·Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina·12 fights
Model: 7/12(58%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R4)
Ponzinibbio 70%30% Magny
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+3.5% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +121(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Magny)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Lamas won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lamas 54%46% Elkins
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -70(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Lamas)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Elkins)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Johnny Walker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Walker 39%61% Jr.
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -279(favors Jr.)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
MiddleweightMISS
Ian Heinisch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Heinisch 40%60% Ferreira
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 37% (+2.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -297(favors Ferreira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.7(favors Ferreira)
BantamweightHIT
Marlon Vera won by Submission (R2)
Vera 77%23% Cannetti
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+3.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Vera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Vera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Cannetti)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Cynthia Calvillo won by Submission (R1)
Calvillo 43%57% Botelho
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 38% (+4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -107(favors Botelho)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Botelho)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Calvillo)
Prelims
WelterweightMISS
Michel Prazeres won by Submission (R1)
Prazeres 45%55% Fabinski
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-13.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Prazeres)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Prazeres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Fabinski)
FlyweightHIT
Alexandre Pantoja won by Submission (R1)
Pantoja 75%25% Sasaki
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +221(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Sasaki)
FeatherweightMISS
Austin Arnett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Arnett 32%68% Bandenay
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 31% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -324(favors Bandenay)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Bandenay)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Arnett)
WelterweightHIT
Laureano Staropoli won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Staropoli 60%40% Aldana
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
LEANMarket: 47% (+13.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +156(favors Staropoli)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Aldana)
LightweightHIT
Jesus Pinedo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pinedo 61%39% Powell
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 67% (-6.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +11(favors Pinedo)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Powell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Powell)
FeatherweightHIT
Nad Narimani won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Narimani 68%32% Santos
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +128(favors Narimani)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Narimani)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Narimani)