UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Saturday, October 27, 2018·Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada·13 fights
Model: 9/13(69%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightMISS
Anthony Smith won by Submission (R3)
Smith 40%60% Oezdemir
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 40% (-0.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -71(favors Oezdemir)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Oezdemir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Smith)
FeatherweightHIT
Michael Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 88%12% Lobov
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+4.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +284(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Lobov)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Misha Cirkunov won by Submission (R1)
Cirkunov 73%27% Cummins
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 75% (-2.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +104(favors Cirkunov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Cirkunov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Cirkunov)
BantamweightMISS
Andre Soukhamthath won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Soukhamthath 38%62% Martinez
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 59% (-20.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Soukhamthath)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Soukhamthath)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Soukhamthath)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Gian Villante won by Decision - Split (R3)
Villante 80%20% Herman
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+12.4% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -73(favors Herman)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Herman)
WelterweightMISS
Court McGee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGee 33%67% Garcia
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-0.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Garcia)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors McGee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Garcia)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by KO/TKO (R2)
Strickland 69%31% Taleb
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (+22.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +94(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Taleb)
LightweightHIT
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 85%15% Gouti
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 86% (-1.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Haqparast)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Haqparast)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Gouti)
FeatherweightHIT
Calvin Kattar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Kattar 66%34% Fishgold
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-7.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +293(favors Kattar)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Kattar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Kattar)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Talita Bernardo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bernardo 59%41% Moras
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 38% (+20.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -284(favors Moras)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Bernardo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Bernardo)
LightweightMISS
Don Madge won by KO/TKO (R2)
Madge 32%68% Edwards
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 20% (+12.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Edwards)
HeavyweightHIT
Arjan Bhullar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bhullar 54%46% Golm
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-5.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -10(favors Golm)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Golm)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Bhullar)
LightweightHIT
Stevie Ray won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ray 55%45% Ayari
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 60% (-5.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +158(favors Ray)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Ayari)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Ray)