UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders
Saturday, September 22, 2018·Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Model Record: 10/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Santos 53%47% Anders
TOSS-UPMarket: 64% (-10.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +124(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Anders)
WelterweightHIT
Alex Oliveira won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oliveira 83%17% Jr.
STRONGMarket: 80% (+2.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +403(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Oliveira)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Rogerio Nogueira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Nogueira 22%78% Alvey
STRONGMarket: 24% (-2.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -23(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Nogueira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Alvey)
BantamweightMISS
Andre Ewell won by Decision - Split (R3)
Ewell 46%54% Barao
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+8.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -108(favors Barao)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Barao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Barao)
Women's Strawweight
Markos 44%56% Rodriguez
LEAN
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -42(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Markos)
LightweightHIT
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 86%14% Giagos
STRONGMarket: 79% (+6.3% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +355(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Francisco Trinaldo won by KO/TKO (R2)
Trinaldo 51%49% Dunham
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-10.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Dunham)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Ryan Spann won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Spann 56%44% Henrique
LEANMarket: 55% (+1.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Spann)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Henrique)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Henrique)
HeavyweightHIT
Augusto Sakai won by KO/TKO (R3)
Sakai 62%38% Sherman
LEANMarket: 67% (-4.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Sakai)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.5(favors Sherman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sherman)
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Submission (R2)
Moraes 78%22% Saunders
STRONGMarket: 71% (+6.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +235(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Saunders)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Mayra Bueno Silva won by Submission (R1)
Silva 41%59% Robertson
LEANMarket: 44% (-2.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -187(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Robertson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.8(favors Robertson)
MiddleweightHIT
Thales Leites won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leites 77%23% Lombard
STRONGMarket: 59% (+17.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Leites)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Lombard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Leites)
WelterweightHIT
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 57%43% Vendramini
LEAN
→Elo gap: +435(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.7(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Santos)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Livinha Souza won by Submission (R1)
Souza 68%32% Chambers
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +127(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Chambers)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Chambers)