UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Santos (14-9) taking on Eryk Anders (9-8).

Santos is rated at 1292 — 186 points above Anders's 1106. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Santos's submission artist game against Anders's striker approach. Santos is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Anders brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Santos over Eryk Anders. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Santos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Santos, but our model sees only 53%. That 11-point gap favoring Anders is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (1-1).

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 869), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Carlo Pedersoli Jr.. The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 83%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rogerio Nogueira (6-6) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 408 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nogueira's all-rounder game against Alvey's knockout artist approach. Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Alvey is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nogueira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alvey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Rogerio Nogueira. The model is firm on this one: Alvey at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Andre Ewell (4-4) taking on Renan Barao (9-7). Ewell is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Ewell carries a modest Elo edge (867 to 821), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Barao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Ewell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renan Barao over Andre Ewell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barao at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Ewell at 38% implied while our model sees 46% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1059 versus Markos at 974. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Markos brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Randa Markos. The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 906 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Giagos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Christos Giagos. The model is firm on this one: Oliveira at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Oliveira at 79% implied while our model sees 86% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 310 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Trinaldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dunham looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dunham the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Trinaldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Evan Dunham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Trinaldo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 61% for Trinaldo, but our model sees only 51%. That 10-point gap favoring Dunham is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Spann (8-6) taking on Luis Henrique (2-3). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Spann is rated at 1116 — 286 points above Henrique's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henrique throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Henrique is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Luis Henrique. The model gives Spann a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Augusto Sakai (4-4) taking on Chase Sherman (4-10).

Sakai is rated at 1122 — 300 points above Sherman's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sherman throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Augusto Sakai over Chase Sherman. The model gives Sakai a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 67% for Sakai, but our model sees only 62%. That 5-point gap favoring Sherman is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-4-1) taking on Ben Saunders (9-9). Saunders is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Moraes is rated at 1097 — 284 points above Saunders's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moraes's all-rounder game against Saunders's knockout artist approach. Moraes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Saunders is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saunders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Ben Saunders. The model is firm on this one: Moraes at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Moraes at 71% implied while our model sees 78% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1) taking on Gillian Robertson (12-6). Silva will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Robertson is rated at 1352 — 336 points above Silva's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Robertson has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gillian Robertson over Mayra Bueno Silva. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Hector Lombard (3-7). Leites is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Leites is rated at 1176 — 212 points above Lombard's 964. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lombard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Leites the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lombard throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Leites has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thales Leites over Hector Lombard. The model is firm on this one: Leites at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Leites at 59% implied while our model sees 77% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (11-5-1) taking on Luigi Vendramini (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Santos.

Santos is rated at 1041 — 178 points above Vendramini's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Santos throws significantly more leather — a 4.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Vendramini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos over Luigi Vendramini. The model gives Santos a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Livinha Souza (3-2) taking on Alex Chambers (1-3).

Souza carries a modest Elo edge (857 to 801), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chambers throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chambers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Livinha Souza over Alex Chambers. We're leaning Souza here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.