UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Sunday, July 22, 2018·Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Model Record: 11/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Anthony Smith won by KO/TKO (R1)
Smith 57%43% Rua
LEANMarket: 60% (-3.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Rua)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Rua)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Corey Anderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anderson 67%33% Teixeira
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (+23.3% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -247(favors Teixeira)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Anderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Anderson)
MiddleweightHIT
Abu Azaitar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Azaitar 68%32% Miranda
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -24(favors Miranda)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Miranda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Miranda)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tybura 61%39% Struve
LEANMarket: 66% (-4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +63(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Tybura)
WelterweightHIT
Danny Roberts won by Decision - Split (R3)
Roberts 68%32% Zawada
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +136(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Roberts)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zawada)
LightweightMISS
Nasrat Haqparast won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Haqparast 48%52% Diakiese
TOSS-UPMarket: 40% (+8.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Diakiese)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Diakiese)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Diakiese)
LightweightHIT
Damir Hadzovic won by Decision - Split (R3)
Hadzovic 59%41% Hein
LEANMarket: 40% (+19.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -28(favors Hein)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Hein)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Hein)
WelterweightHIT
Bartosz Fabinski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fabinski 55%45% Meek
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+13.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +47(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Meek)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.5(favors Fabinski)
FeatherweightHIT
Nad Narimani won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Narimani 65%35% Taha
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (-5.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Taha)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Taha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Taha)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Aleksandar Rakic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rakic 53%47% Ledet
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+5.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Ledet)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Ledet)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Ledet)
BantamweightHIT
Manny Bermudez won by Submission (R1)
Bermudez 65%35% Grant
LEANMarket: 72% (-6.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +166(favors Bermudez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Grant)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Bermudez)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Darko Stosic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Stosic 73%27% Kimball
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+2.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +56(favors Stosic)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Kimball)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Kimball)
BantamweightMISS
Pingyuan Liu won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Liu 47%53% Stasiak
TOSS-UPMarket: 49% (-1.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +55(favors Liu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Stasiak)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Stasiak)